693
FXUS64 KLIX 231536
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-5" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND
COULD EASILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAL 7 DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
IT HASN'T BEEN A QUESTION OF WHETHER SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WOULD
BE IN PLACE OR EVEN IF TORRENTIAL RAIN WOULD OCCUR. THE CHALLENGE
HAS BEEN HAVING ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE CWA VS ISOLATED EVENTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUDTOPS FROM DEVELOPING MCS THATS MOVING
INTO SW LA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CWA, MOST CONCERNED
WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES OVERWHELMING DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THUS, HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SELA AS WELL AS SW AND COASTAL MS.
INTENTIONALLY EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL ARE AND BRING
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WATCH
... ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MCS MOVING EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LA
POSES SEVERE POTENTIAL AS ASSOCIATED STORMS TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.
WHAT STANDS OUT LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS IS INSTABILITY ALOFT
WITH QUITE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVELS. WHATS LACKING MOST WOULD BE
SHEAR AT ANY LEVELS. SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH
PRECIP LOADING AND HAIL...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WE'VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS INTACT AS THE ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS WITH A SERIES OF H5 IMPULSES/VORTS THAT CONTINUE TO TO
DEVELOP AND SLIDE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW GENERALLY ONCE EVERY
12 TO 18 HRS OR SO. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES HAS BEEN A BIT
TRICKY, BUT ANYTIME PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND AN IMPULSE ARE TIMED
WELL EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION (LIKE TODAY). HYDRO
CONCERNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWATS JUST SHY OF 2.0" WILL MAKE FOR SOME
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. BACKBUILDING STORMS ESPECIALLY THOSE
OVER URBANIZED AREAS OR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OVER PERFORMED
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL BE MOST AT RISK THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
FILTER WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE RATHER CONDITIONAL, WITH TODAY HAVING THE BEST ODDS OF A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM. ROBUST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND,
BUT DCAPE VALUES OVER 1,000 J/KG SUGGESTS A COUPLE SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S, BUT MAY BE HELD DOWN DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD NEXT WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND TURN
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF SOUTH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA WITH
CONVECTIVE IMPULSES BEING LARGELY DRIVEN BY EMBEDDED REGIONS OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT WRAP AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. THUS, THE WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN RECENTLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT TO TAP INTO.
PRECIPTIABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES EACH
DAY, OR BETWEEN THE 75TH AND DAILY MAX VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EACH DAY WHICH IS MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. HIGH FREEZING.
LEVELS NEAR 14K FEET AND WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C WILL
SUPPORT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN THESE DEEPER UPDRAFTS, AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR TO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH DAY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STORM MOTION AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR BACK
BUILDING AND TRAINING ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CULPRITS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WILL LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AS OVERALL STORM MOTION SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. THUS, THE FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY LOCALIZED. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS FAIRLY LOW NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ONLY MAIN CONCERN BEING THE THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS
DEVELOPING WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. A BRIEF AND VERY
WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO DEVELOP WHERE STORMS INTERSECT WITH ANY PRE-
EXISTING BOUNDARIES, BUT THIS THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE
WIND THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
(PG)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE LOW CIGS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE TERMINALS THAT RECENTLY
EXPERIENCED RAIN. SIMILAR TO DAYS PAST, THE BEST CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WILL HAPPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT AS WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYTIME IN THIS
PATTERN. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE TIME. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY RIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. PERIODS OF
NEAR 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN GULF WATERS. AS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
INLAND. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND WAVES CAN
BE EXPECTED. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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