406
FXUS64 KLIX 232350
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
650 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-5" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND
COULD EASILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAL 7 DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS LA AND
NOW INTO CENTRAL MS IS STEADILY DECAYING. THEREFORE, HAVE BEEN
TRIMMING BACK THE SVR WATCH AND LIKELY WON'T HAVE THE REMAINING
PORTION OUT FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. CONVECTIVE SHIELD WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREAS OF THE CWA THAT HAVEN'T SEEN ANY SO FAR TODAY
WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY.
THE LATER PART OF TODAY FROM EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IR IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA
COASTLINES. HRRR LOOKS TO BE INITIATING QUITE WELL. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RIGHT ALONG THE
LA COAST FROM TX TO AL. SO MAKES SENSE THAT CAMS SHOW CONVECTION
STAYING RIGHT ON THAT BOUNDARY OF SORTS AS MEAN FLOW CARRIES
STORMS EAST. AGAIN, MODELS SUGGEST STORMS STRUGGLING AS THEY TRACK
MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF NEW ORLEANS METRO. THAT LEADS TO
LESS OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERN NORTH OF THERE.
FOR SUNDAY, A CONTINUED CHALLENGE FOR CAMS TO PRODUCE ANY
SEMBLANCE OF UNIFIED SOLUTIONS. NOT SURPRISING WITH QUITE COMPLEX
MESOSCALE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. BUT FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, BROAD
SCALE TROUGH THATS BEEN SITUATED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
FINALLY BE SHIFTING EAST. NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE ALL OF THE
TROUGH THOUGH. THE BASE OF IT WILL GET SNIPPED OFF AND LAG BEHIND
IS MID LATITUDE COUNTERPART. THAT SLOWING COMBINED WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS CONDUCIVE FOR BACK BUILDING STORMS WILL MAINTAIN FLASH
FLOOD RISK SUNDAY. AND PROBABLY AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
BARELY DRIFTS EAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LA. SO MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN UNSETTLED AND MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PUSHED FARTHER
NORTH AND WAY FROM THE CWA BY NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING INTO
THE WESTERN US. WHAT THAT DOES LOCALLY IS MAINTAIN WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT. HARD TO SAY IF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD IS STILL
DYNAMICALLY INTACT. REGARDLESS, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE AREAL SUBSIDENCE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTANT. AS SEEN
RECENTLY, SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8 AND
2.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY FLUCTUATE SOMEWHAT DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON
SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING FROM PRIOR DAY
ACTIVITY, AND THOSE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
BROAD SCALE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
STRATIFORM RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH EXCEPTION TO
GPT AND MCB WHICH WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME -RA IN THE COMING HOURS.
TSRA IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE COAST AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD DECKS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT COULD WORSEN TO IFR CIG/VIS WITH
ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AROUND THE 1000-1800 UTC
TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS (HUM, MSY, NEW,
ASD, AND GPT PRIMARILY). WINDS WILL PREVAIL GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT WILL VARY DUE TO TSRA ACTIVITY. SH/TS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM. WATCH FOR
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO PROB30S AND TSRA LINES IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WINDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. PERIODS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN GULF WATERS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM GALE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH STRONGER
CELLS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...ME
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