637
FXUS64 KLIX 240530 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-5" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY OVERWHELM
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS LA AND
NOW INTO CENTRAL MS IS STEADILY DECAYING. THEREFORE, HAVE BEEN
TRIMMING BACK THE SVR WATCH AND LIKELY WON'T HAVE THE REMAINING
PORTION OUT FOR TOO MUCH LONGER. CONVECTIVE SHIELD WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREAS OF THE CWA THAT HAVEN'T SEEN ANY SO FAR TODAY
WHILE SLOWLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY.
THE LATER PART OF TODAY FROM EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE
MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IR IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE TX AND SW LA
COASTLINES. HRRR LOOKS TO BE INITIATING QUITE WELL. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT RIGHT ALONG THE
LA COAST FROM TX TO AL. SO MAKES SENSE THAT CAMS SHOW CONVECTION
STAYING RIGHT ON THAT BOUNDARY OF SORTS AS MEAN FLOW CARRIES
STORMS EAST. AGAIN, MODELS SUGGEST STORMS STRUGGLING AS THEY TRACK
MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF NEW ORLEANS METRO. THAT LEADS TO
LESS OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERN NORTH OF THERE.
FOR SUNDAY, A CONTINUED CHALLENGE FOR CAMS TO PRODUCE ANY
SEMBLANCE OF UNIFIED SOLUTIONS. NOT SURPRISING WITH QUITE COMPLEX
MESOSCALE DYNAMICS IN PLAY. BUT FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, BROAD
SCALE TROUGH THATS BEEN SITUATED ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
FINALLY BE SHIFTING EAST. NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE ALL OF THE
TROUGH THOUGH. THE BASE OF IT WILL GET SNIPPED OFF AND LAG BEHIND
IS MID LATITUDE COUNTERPART. THAT SLOWING COMBINED WITH CORFIDI
VECTORS CONDUCIVE FOR BACK BUILDING STORMS WILL MAINTAIN FLASH
FLOOD RISK SUNDAY. AND PROBABLY AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
BARELY DRIFTS EAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LA. SO MAY HAVE TO
EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN UNSETTLED AND MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS PUSHED FARTHER
NORTH AND WAY FROM THE CWA BY NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING INTO
THE WESTERN US. WHAT THAT DOES LOCALLY IS MAINTAIN WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT. HARD TO SAY IF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD IS STILL
DYNAMICALLY INTACT. REGARDLESS, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE WHILE AREAL SUBSIDENCE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTANT. AS SEEN
RECENTLY, SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8 AND
2.2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY FLUCTUATE SOMEWHAT DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON
SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING FROM PRIOR DAY
ACTIVITY, AND THOSE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
BROAD SCALE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING FOR MANY TERMINALS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
LATE HOUR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED SOUTH OF HUM AND MSY/NEW
AREAS, WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO IMPACTING THOSE TERMINALS BETWEEN
06Z AND 10Z RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS WITH
THIS CONVECTION IF IT MOVES OVER THE SITES. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY
APPEARS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP AND CAUSE ISSUES WITH VIS AND CIG AS WELL AS POSSIBLY
MORE ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS, SHRA WILL BE COMMON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY BE OFF IF CONVECTION IMPACTS
THE LOCAL TERMINALS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WINDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. PERIODS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN GULF WATERS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT TERM GALE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH STRONGER
CELLS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page