551
FXUS64 KLIX 241142
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
- HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR WITH HIGHER RATES OVER
SHORT PERIODS COULD EASILY OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING
TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FLASH
FLOODING COULD RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY
IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO CAPTURE SHORT TERM TRENDS IN BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
POPS. BIGGEST CHANGE IS LOWERING POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
DATA. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL TREND TOWARD MORE SCATTERED DURING THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN ISOLATED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ACTIVE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AN ONGOING MCV IS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LANDBASED AND
ADJACENT MARINE BASED ZONES. THINK MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MISS THE NEW ORLEANS METRO, BUT WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE MS GULF
COAST IN SOME CAPACITY AS THE MCV CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTHEAST.
WITH THESE STORMS THERE AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS. AND SINCE MOST OF OUR LOCAL RIVERS IN
FLOOD ARE IN MS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THOSE CONCERNS IF THE
COMPLEX DOESN'T BEGIN TO DECAY SOON. ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS,
THERE STILL REMAIN A FEW QUESTIONS ABOUT TODAY'S FORECAST POST
MCV.
SO, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ABSOLUTELY UNCHANGED FROM
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
INTACT. BOTH GLOBALS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 8-10AM AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY LACKING, SO MAYBE A BIT
LESS OF A STRONG STORM SITUATION (ALTHOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE), HYDRO CONCERNS WILL REMAIN. GLOBALS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVING OVER THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS A BIT LOWER, THE QPF SIGNAL FROM BOTH GLOBALS AND
CAMS SHOULDN'T BE IGNORED. FOR THIS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE FFA.
FURTHERMORE, GIVEN THE LACK OF A BREAK IN THE CURRENT PATTERN WE
EVEN EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS A
CONTINUATION OF VORTS/IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
THAT SAID, THERE MAY BE ATLEAST A SLIGHT BREAK LATER TONIGHT
(SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY) BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRES
MONDAY ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING.
GOING INTO TUESDAY THE SERIES OF IMPULSES AND THE FLOW BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE MESSAGE.
CONTINUED ACTIVE AND WET. AT THIS RANGE IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME THE INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES, BUT RIGHT NOW TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE RATHER WET AS ANOTHER RATHER
ROBUST IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE REGION. AGAIN TIMING MAY CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES
WILL CONTINUE AGAIN BOTH FLASH FLOOD FROM A POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBANIZED STANDPOINT AND BY THEN DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
LOCAL RIVER BASINS, ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE
LIKELY AS WELL. FINALLY, WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL AROUND THE
REGION EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ON THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THERE'S NO LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR THIS WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN JUST YET THOUGH SOME SLIGHT REPRIEVE IS BEING HINTED
AT LATER NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW WRINGS OUT MORE DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, YET ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LIFT
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND POP-UP STRONG STORMS.
PRECIPTIABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES EACH
DAY, OR BETWEEN THE 75TH AND DAILY MAX VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EACH DAY WHICH IS MORE THAN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. HIGH FREEZING.
LEVELS NEAR 14K FEET AND WARM 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C WILL
SUPPORT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN THESE DEEPER UPDRAFTS, AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR TO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS, FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EACH DAY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STORM MOTION AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR BACK
BUILDING AND TRAINING ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CULPRITS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WILL LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. THUS, THE FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS FAIRLY LOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY
MAIN CONCERN BEING THE THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS DEVELOPING WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. A BRIEF AND VERY WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO
DEVELOP WHERE STORMS INTERSECT WITH ANY PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES, BUT
THIS THREAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE WIND THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. (TJS)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS ARE DEPARTING THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE SHIELD
OF RAIN/CONVECTION FROM LATE LAST NIGHT, TODAY APPEARS TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
CAUSE ISSUES WITH VIS AND CIG AS WELL AS POSSIBLY MORE ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
ALREADY SEE SOME OF THIS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF HUM. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SHRA WILL BE COMMON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT DIRECTION AND SPEED MAY BE OFF IF CONVECTION IMPACTS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
WINDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS. PERIODS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN OPEN GULF WATERS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. AS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT
TERM GALE TO STORM FORCE GUSTS WITH STRONGEST CELLS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE...95/DM
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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