065
FXUS64 KLIX 251050 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO BOGALUSA.
- SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-3" PER HOUR. HIGH RATES, EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS, COULD
OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN AREAS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS RESULT
IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE SERIES OF VORTS CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITHIN THE FLOW. TODAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT. BOTH
GLOBALS AND CAMS INDICATE A POTENTIALLY WET DAY, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE I55 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE MS GULF COAST. PWATS ARE WELL
UP THERE OVER 2.0" WHICH WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED THE FFA THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT THE DAY
SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEADLINE IF, INDEED, THE REGION GETS
A GOOD SOAKING TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN BEING A THREAT ON
TUESDAY. SPEAKING OF TUESDAY, IT WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO
PROPERLY TIME EACH IMPULSE AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM OVER THE REGION,
BUT ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AGAIN EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR. PWATS
ON TUESDAY MAY BE JUST A SKOSH LOWER, BUT STILL 1.75"-1.85" WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR CONCERN ESPECIALLY WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BEING
A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. FINALLY, NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD,
BUT WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN IS LEFT UNCHANGED. AGAIN TIMING WILL BE
TRICKY, WHICH ALSO MAKES KNOWING WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL
FALL A BIT TRICKY AS WELL. BUT A CONTINUATION OF LOCALIZED HYDRO
CONCERNS IS ANTICIPATED.
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
VERY CONDITIONAL...NOT ZERO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
WITH PRECIP LOADING EVIDENT BY THE HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT.
AND FINALLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS AGAIN CLOUDINESS, RAINFALL, LOWER
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES, AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL HELP LIMIT
DURATION OF HEATING, THOUGH IF THERE IS A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHERE SUN POPS THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER, THERE WILL BE SOME
DECENTLY STRONG AND RAPID SURFACE HEATING. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL INHERIT MUCH OF THE SAME BROAD,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT OF EARLIER IN THE WEAK AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LINGERS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES WITH LARGELY SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE PATTERNS SETTING UP. THE QAUSI-REX BLOCK REGIME WITH
RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP UPPER TROUGHING AND STUBBORN
SUBTROPICAL JET PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE ONLY NUANCED DIFFERENCE POTENTIALLY BEING PROPAGATION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE SE CONUS. THIS WOULD PROMOTE MORE
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT COULD RELATIVELY LOWER PWATS
FROM THEIR CURRENT NEAR-DAILY MAXIMUMS BETWEEN 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES.
EITHER WAY, POPS WILL BE A MAINSTAY IN THE FORECAST PARTICULARLY FOR
THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
A TEASE BEYOND DAY 7 IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DOES ALLUDE THAT THIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE A STRONGER, MORE TEXTBOOK, REX BLOCK ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND STRENGTHEN EAST COAST TROUGHING
THAT COULD HELP PIVOT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION AND PROMOTE ADVECTION OF DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR. WE'LL
SEE IF THIS SOLUTION BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT IN THE COMING DAYS.
(TJS)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION. EARLY MORNING AND OVERNIGHT, MVFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AT
NIGHT LATER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT MAY BE A BIT
MORE ERRATIC AROUND CONVECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ039-046>048-056>058-064-
070-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page