217
FXUS64 KLIX 260012
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
712 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR. WITH MOSTLY
SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS
COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
- A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY
GENERALLY FOR AREAS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS METRO EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE. ELSEWHERE, THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOWER, THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING COULD STILL
OCCUR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX HAS SUPPRESSED DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
REFLECT THIS. LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUESDAY AND RESUME
OUR SOGGY WEATHER OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" COULD EASILY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. ADDITIONALLY, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS
LIKE GULFPORT AND NEW ORLEANS COULD ALSO SEE STREET FLOODING IF
STORMS LINGER OR TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF STORM MOTIONS. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 5AM UNTIL 7PM TUESDAY AND COULD BE EXPANDED OR
EXTENDED IF SUCCESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE NEED TO DO SO
SINCE WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE DONE WITH RAIN CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY
EITHER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
BIGGEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED 3-6" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 5 DAYS
WITH SOME UNOFFICIAL LOCALIZED REPORTS IN EXCESS OF 10". THAT
BEING SAID, THE GROUND IS FAIRLY SATURATED AND ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY CONVERT TO RUNOFF LEADING TO PONDING
IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OVERALL, THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED - CONDITIONALLY DEPENDENT ON
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVIER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH... THE ORIGINAL FLOOD WATCH, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BATON
ROUGE TO BOGALUSA, WILL NOT BE EXTENDED BEYOND 7P THIS EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT LULL IN STORMS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING A CLEAN EXPIRATION. HOWEVER, NEAR
CONSTANT RAIN SO FAR TODAY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING TOMORROW WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MORE IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING ON A LOCALIZED SCALE.
THAT BEING SAID, A NEW FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR AREAS
GENERALLY FROM THE NEW ORLEANS METRO EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST (INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE) FROM 5A TUESDAY
THROUGH 7P TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE OVERALL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
HIGH DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
WHILE THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH ANY REAL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL TYPICALLY FAVOR PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE ADDED BENEFIT OF DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION.
WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL CLOUD COVER, DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
WILL BE A LITTLE SMALLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL -
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S - WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL - IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS FROM BKN SKIES AND LINGERING STRATIFORM ARE
GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME AS CONVECTION DEPARTS THE AREA. CIGS WILL
LIKELY LOWER BACK TO IFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE
INTERMITTENT AS INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS. SH/TS COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COAST AROUND 1200 UTC AND EXPAND
INLAND TO ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA IMPACTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT
TERMINALS, BUT MAY BE TWEAKED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING OF
THESE STORMS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST, BUT MAY VARY AND STRENGTHEN DUE TO TSRA IMPACTS.
SH/TS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET, AS TYPICAL WITH
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER, DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONE OR TWO
POSSIBLY APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 50 KTS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LAZ039-064-070-076>080-087-089>093-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...DM
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