007
FXUS64 KLIX 260657
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
157 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR. WITH MOSTLY
SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS
COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
- A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY GENERALLY
FOR AREAS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS METRO EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST INCLUDING THE NORTH SHORE. ELSEWHERE, THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOWER, THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING COULD STILL
OCCUR. ADDTIIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SO FAR A RATHER RARE SIGHT HERE RECENTLY...A RELATIVELY RAIN FREE
NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AT LEAST FOR NOW. AFTER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MS GULF COAST GOT A SEASON'S WORTH OF RAIN IN
THE LAST WEEK THIS IS VERY MUCH WELCOME.
HOWEVER, THE SAME PATTERN THAT SOAKED MOST OF THE AREA (AND
FLOODED OTHERS) REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORTWAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION GENERALLY ONE EVERY 12-18 HOURS OR SO.
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL TRICKY AS WE HAVE SEEN
THE LAST FEW NIGHTS EVEN AFTER LOSING PEAK HEATING WE HAVE MANAGED
TO OVER PERFORM IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. THAT SAID, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER H5 IMPULSES MOVE OVER DURING PEAK
HEATING WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
FOR TODAY, A FEW CHANGES TO NOTE AT LEAST MODEST CHANGES. THERE IS
A BIT MORE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION. THIS MEANS INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH
SOMEWHAT BETTER LAPSE RATES. ALSO, PWAT VALUES ARE A GOOD BIT
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH AROUND 1.65-1.85" RESPECTIVELY. THAT
SAID, WE DON'T NEED PWATS TO BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR RAINFALL
RATES THAT MAY CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH THE RECENT SOAKERS WE HAVE
HAD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FFA GENERALLY EAST OF NOLA ALONG I10
THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE INCREDIBLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MS GULF COAST. CAMS ARE A BIT
BULLISH WITH THE PARAMETERS THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYING THE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME TO JUST AFTERNOON ALLOWS FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE
1000 J/KG LEADING TO A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
WEDNESDAY FEATURES WHAT COULD BE A MCS TO OUR WEST MOVING EAST
WITH TIME OUT OF TEXAS AND THEN PERHAPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE COLD POOL LOOKS TO ARRIVE GENERALLY AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES JUST A BIT, BUT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP, STORMS
WILL AGAIN FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS SLIGHTLY INCREASE,
BUT SIMILARLY IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEAVY RAINFALL TO CAUSE
ISSUES. ADDITIONAL FFA'S MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AGAIN TIMING AND
LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL TRICKY SO OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE HEADLINES FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY LOOKS TO START EARLY
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING IN LATER IN THE MORNING GENERATING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY IS A BIT
CONCERNING BECAUSE PWATS DO BOUNCE BACK OVER 2.0" ONCE AGAIN AND
WITH THE RATHER DEFINED WAVE ALOFT EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES, TODAY LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER CONSIDERING A LATER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME, BUT SHOULD STILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE
AS WELL, AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAITING UNTIL LATER,
BUT THURSDAY LOOKS COOLER DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD EARLIER
CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE AREA ONLY WARMING ONLY INTO THE LOWER
80S. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING STUCK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PREVALENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
FAVORABLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOTIONS WITHIN THIS UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW, PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COMING OUT OF SOUTHEAST TX. HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING, SIZE, AND
STRENGTH OF ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS
ANYBODY'S GUESS AT THIS LEAD TIME.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY SCOOT EASTWARD INTO THE SE CONUS
CAUSING MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND
WHICH COULD TAMP DOWN POPS THOUGH SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON POP-UP
CONVECTION WOULD STILL BE PROBABLE TO PROVIDE SOME IMPACTS TO
OUTDOOR PLANS EVEN IF IT'S MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN COULD EVENTUALLY BREAK WHERE A STRONGER,
MORE TEXTBOOK, REX BLOCK ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS AND STRENGTHEN EAST COAST TROUGHING THAT COULD HELP
PIVOT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION AND
PROMOTE ADVECTION OF DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR. THIS WOULD BRING ABOUT
MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL CHANCES FOR POPS IN THE 20-50% RANGE
HEADED INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION DOES APPEAR TO HAVE
SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY, BUT I'M NOT TRYING TO GET
ANYBODY'S HOPES UP JUST YET. (TJS)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MVFR AND PERHAPS LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK, HOWEVER,
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MORE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE I55 CORRIDOR. BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST
PART. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, BUT
MAY BE A BIT ERRATIC IN AND AROUND CONVECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ039-064-070-076>080-087-089>093-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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