066
FXUS64 KLIX 271051 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
551 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR. WITH MOSTLY
SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS
COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
EYES ARE FOCUSED UPSTREAM THIS MORNING WATCHING A MCS OVER TEXAS
MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD. CAMS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WEAKENING AS IT
NEARS THE CWFA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HELPED SUPPRESS
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVER TIME.
PWATS APPROACH 2.0" AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SO THE CONVECTION WITH
THE MCS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN (MOSTLY WEST
OF I55). THE MCS DECAYS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE THE DRY AIR ALOFT VANISHES THIS
AFTERNOON, THERE IS LESS OF A WIND THREAT WITH THE CELLS (EVIDENT
BY DCAPE VALUES HALF OF WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY).
GOING INTO THURSDAY BOTH MESOSCALE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
DRIER. BECAUSE OF THIS TREND DIDN'T EXTEND THE FFA IN TIME GIVEN
THE LOWER CONFIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT LARGE SHIFT IN THE TRENDS. GOING
INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THERE IS FINALLY A
SMALL PATTERN SHIFT TAKING PLACE. THE ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT EVOLVES TO A MORE ZONAL AND EVEN EVENTUALLY SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
RAINFALL JUST A BIT, BUT STILL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, JUST A BIT MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE THAN
THE LAST WEEK OR SO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT UNDER CLIMO. BUT GOING LATER INTO THE SHORT
TERM TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
WHICH IS GETTING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE SPECIFICS OF THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK ARE STILL A BIT HAZY. IT IS A
CERTAINTY THAT WE WILL BE SEEING CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE LONG TERM GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN
FULL AGREEMENT OF HOW WE GET THERE. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IS
TREATMENT OF HOW AN UPPER LOW BEHAVES AS IT DROPS OUT OF THE HIGH
LATITUDES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND EVOLVES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND
AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY VS AN
OPEN TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. AS
MENTIONED, MODEL SOLUTIONS BRING US RAIN AND THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
IS THAT WE MOVE TO A MORE SUMMERTIME FEEL OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ON THE ORDER OF 1/2 INCH OF RAIN EVERY DAY,
AND OF COURSE LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER OR LOWER.
FORTUNATELY, THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT THE LOCALIZED
FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING WE'VE SEEN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
WORKWEEK WILL NOT BE REPEATED. THE OTHER POSITIVE NOTE IS THAT
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS, WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY
FULL-BLOWN SEVERE WEATHER. (DS)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
IMPROVEMENT OCCURING RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE. THROUGH TODAY EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS ON THE LOW SIDE. LATER
TONIGHT MORE CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT MORE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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