636
FXUS64 KLIX 272324
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR. WITH MOSTLY
SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER SHORT PERIODS
COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS
RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOST PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
NARROW BAND OVER POINTE COUPEE AND IBERVILLE PARISHES. THAT AREA
IS ALSO WEAKENING. WHILE THERE IS STILL CONVECTION OVER THE GULF,
CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD TRACK MOST OF IT WEST OF OUR CWA. TAKING
THOSE TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT, PLAN IS TO ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN
REASSESS THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL ONE TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A STALLED MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING
(ABUNDANT MOISTURE, HIGH PWS, DECENT INSTABILITY, ETC.). SO, THE
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT, WITH RATES AROUND 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. PONDING OF LOW-LYING ROADS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME WATER
OVER ROADWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS (40-
60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL WEATHER-WISE AS ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY RIDGING DOMINATE
THE PATTERN. AS A RESULT, DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. POPS ARE AROUND 30-50% EACH
DAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT GUSTY WINDS
(40- 60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR. MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
HAS DISSIPATED, AND THE ONLY MENTION IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST IS A PROB30 AT KBTR, AND THAT MAY BE OVERSTATING THE
THREAT EVEN THERE. DO EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT
MOST TERMINALS BEYOND 08Z, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK DRY SLOT ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON, AND WILL GRADUALLY END PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...MSW
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