609
FXUS64 KLIX 280527 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR.
WITH MOSTLY SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER
SHORT PERIODS COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING
IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR
WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
- A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A STALLED MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING
(ABUNDANT MOISTURE, HIGH PWS, DECENT INSTABILITY, ETC.). SO, THE
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT, WITH RATES AROUND 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. PONDING OF LOW-LYING ROADS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME WATER
OVER ROADWAYS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS (40-
60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL WEATHER-WISE AS ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY RIDGING DOMINATE
THE PATTERN. AS A RESULT, DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. POPS ARE AROUND 30-50% EACH
DAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER
IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT GUSTY WINDS
(40- 60MPH) COULD BE POSSIBLE. MSW
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. SOME REDUCTIONS THIS
MORNING ARE EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY CONVECTION WILL AGAIN LIKELY
DEVELOP WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN HEAVIER CONVECTION IFR VIS/CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT
THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
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