708
FXUS64 KLIX 280658
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3" PER HOUR.
WITH MOSTLY SATURATED SOILS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EVEN OVER
SHORT PERIODS COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, LEADING TO
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME ROADS BECOMING
IMPASSABLE, MAINLY IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS, OR
WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS RESULT IN LONGER PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
- A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH RAIN CHANCES A BIT LOWER, TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A CONVECTIVE PLUME THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA LAST
EVENING IS MOVING NORTH, HOWEVER, WEAKENING HERE WITH TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS INDICATED
WARMING CLOUD TOPS, SO THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY RAIN ITSELF OUT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
GOING INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, THE OLD CONVECTIVE
PLUME WILL LEAVE BEHIND AN OLD BOUNDARY, WHICH CAMS ARE SHOWING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE AS EARLY AS
6 OR 7 AM. TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE, BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT IS THERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OF COURSE HYDRO
WITH JUICY PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.
OPTED OUT OF REISSUING FLOOD HEADLINES FOR TODAY DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TERMS OF SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TERMS OF AREAS IMPACTED. MOST AT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MS
GULF COAST, BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF THE I59 CORRIDOR.
AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN FINALLY BEGINS TO
CHANGE A BIT. FIRST, ON FRIDAY, AN H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER, THE BEST QPF SIGNAL WITHIN THE MODELS LOOKS TO
BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY EVOLVES TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY
SOME MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL
SUPPRESS RAINFALL CHANCES JUST A BIT. DESPITE THE RIDGE THERE WILL
STILL BE A SHOT AT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE WILL
STILL NEED TO MONITOR LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS SOAKED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, BUT HYDRO CONCERNS
GOING DEEPER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK TO BE MORE THE
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WITH HEIGHTS
RISING AND POPS ON THE DOWNWARD SWING, SAY HELLO TO SUMMER WITH
90 DEGREES LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR SEVERAL SPOTS GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL STILL BE IN A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING, WITH RIDGING FROM EAST TEXAS TO
MINNESOTA. BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THE NORTH END, WITH THE TROUGHINESS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PRETTY MUCH GONE.
UNFORTUNATELY, NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE AIRMASS
DRYING OUT. SO, WHILE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING
MECHANISM, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH WILL MEAN WE CAN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED
HOURS. IN OTHER WORDS, AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSIDERING WE'LL BE TURNING THE CALENDAR PAGE TO JUNE, THAT'S NOT A
TERRIBLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE. AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK PLUS BY THE TIME WE GET
INTO THE WORKWEEK. SO, INSTEAD OF 60 TO 80 PERCENT POPS LIKE WE'VE
HAD MOST DAYS RECENTLY, IT'LL PROBABLY BE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 30-
50 PERCENT WITH NO ALL DAY WASHOUTS BY THE TIME WE GET TO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM NUMBERS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE ARGUE FOR HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES. FORECAST LOWS
LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT HAVE TROUBLE GETTING BELOW 70 UNTIL PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS, AND UNLIKELY TO FALL
BELOW 70 SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AT ALL NEXT WEEK.
(RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. SOME REDUCTIONS THIS
MORNING ARE EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY CONVECTION WILL AGAIN LIKELY
DEVELOP WITH A BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN HEAVIER CONVECTION IFR VIS/CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT
THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS, WITH A FEW CELLS EACH DAY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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