689
FXUS64 KLIX 130447
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID
90S THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105
DEGREES. THIS IS OUR FIRST HEAT SPELL OF THE SUMMER, SO PLEASE
USE CAUTION IF OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HIGHER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS HAS CORRELATED TO A HIGHER FLASH
FLOOD RISK STARTING MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF
5) FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HOT THEN WET WILL PRETTY MUCH SUM UP THIS FCAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO REACH AROUND 105 EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT THAT WAS STALLED OVER ARKANSAS EARLIER FRI WILL GET ANOTHER
KICK SOUTHWARD TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH THEN GET
ANOTHER KICK SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL BY LATE MONDAY
AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES. TRYING TO
FIND THE FRONT SYNOPTICALLY WILL BE A MESS COME MONDAY. THE ONLY
WAY TO FIND IT AT THE SFC IS WITH THERMAL GRADIENTS. THIS ALSO
MEANS THAT IT COULD BECOME ALMOST ALL CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN. IT CAN
BE FOUND AT 850MB THOUGH. MONDAY COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE TUESDAY SHOULD BE
THE HEAVIEST AND LARGEST COVERAGE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE
AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MONDAY THROUGH
WED. NORMALY, THESE NUMBERS WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER THAT SAME TIME
PERIOD, BUT THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THEY COME IN FAST LIKE A
BURST. TUESDAY MAY BE THE STRONGEST RAINFALL DAY WHERE WE SEE MOST
OF THESE NUMBERS ACHIEVED WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US, PRODUCING ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE NEAR THE TOP OF THE CHART TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS AROUND
2.2 INCHES OR A LITTLE HIGHER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CONSIDERING 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE REMAINING IN THE -5
TO -7C RANGE, WARM RAIN PROCESSES COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 2 TO 3
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALLS. ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS IN THE PRECEEDING 48
HOURS, THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
ONCE THAT SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BEGIN MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO 1.9
INCHES THURSDAY, AND FALLING FURTHER, TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
FRIDAY. THAT FRIDAY FIGURE IS GETTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DAILY MEAN
OF 1.55 INCHES. THAT SHOULD BRING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
THURSDAY AND 30 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AS THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT LATE NEXT WEEK, WE'LL SEE THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CREEP BACK UP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY AND IN THE LOEWR 90S
ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
RECEIVE STORMS ON A PARTICULAR DAY PROBLABLY WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S, WHILE DRY AREAS GET PRETTY CLOSE TO 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WIL BE IN THE 70S, AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SOME VIS REDUCTION TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
OVER A CORRIDOR FROM BTR TO MCB, OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD BE THE RULE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PROMOTING A PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE
SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES. AFTERWARDS INTO NEXT WEEK, A STALLING FRONT
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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