609
FXUS64 KLIX 140509
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1209 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACH 105 DEGREES, SO USE CAUTION DURING PROLONGED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY.
- FLASH FLOODING RISK INCREASES MONDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT RISK, LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4, FOR
FLASH FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
ARKANSAS TODAY AND FINALLY COME TO A STALL VERY CLOSE OR JUST OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO GET IT INTO THE
AREA, BUT CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO THIS. THE
QUESTION IS OBVIOUS THAT CONVECTIVE FORCING NEEDS DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT SO IT CAN COLD POOL, AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EVENTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN TALKING HEAVILY ABOUT
A TROPICAL AIR MASS, IT WILL MIX WITH THE TROUGH'S DRY AIR
CAUSING THIS COLD POOLING WITH SH/TS. A VERY SIMILAR PROCESS
OCCURS WITH THE ACTUAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS BY TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. IF ONE TAKES A LOOK AT THE H3 LEVEL WINDS(GFS), IT
IS VERY EVIDENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE TX COAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED. UPPER TROUGHS
FORM DUE TO THERMAL IMBALANCES. AND A TROPICAL AIR MASS ADJACENT
TO A BAROCLINIC AIR MASS(TROUGHING) IS VERY MUCH ONE OF THOSE
THERMAL IMBALANCES. WE CAN DISCUSS SYMANTICS ALL DAY WHETHER
SOMETHING IS BAROTROPIC, BAROCLINIC OR A HYBRID OF BOTH. WE WILL
SIMPLY SAY HERE THAT IT(THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/AIR MASS) WILL
BE IN TRANSITION WHILE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE COASTAL TX PLAINS.
BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD NOT BE THE MAIN FOCUS HERE. THE RAIN THAT
THIS HELPS PRODUCE AS IT SENDS PULSES OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONTAL AXIS IS THE MAIN STORY LINE. COULD THERE BE A FEW STORMS
WITH STRONG DOWNBURSTS? YES, AND THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT WILL
ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUTS. BUT THE MAIN THING WILL STILL
BE RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS WANT TO CLUSTER THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ALONG THE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND THAT MAKES SENSE,
SO MON THROUGH WED AMOUNTS ARE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR AN INCH AT THE
COAST TO 3 INCHES NORTH CLOSER TO THIS BOUNARY. THE WETTEST DAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE TUE AND EVENTHOUGH WED LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
WET AS WELL, WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT WHERE THIS HYBRID FEATURE
WILL TRECK FOR THE FOLLOWING DAYS, AS IT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
MOST CONCENTRATED MOISTURE CONTENT. GFS WANTS TO SEND IT PACKING
ALONG THE FRONTAL AXIS WHICH MOVES IT THROUGH HERE WHILE THE EURO
WANTS TO BRING IT INTO EAST TX AND STALL IT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY,
THE EURO WOULD BE FAVORED SINCE THE TIME FRAME(FRI) WOULD WEIGHT
CLIMO SLIGHTLY HEAVIER IN RELATION TO SYNOPTIC OBS. THE GFS HAS
THIS MOVING OVER OR NEAR OUR AREA WED NIGHT/THU TIME FRAME WHICH
IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD OBS AND NOT AS MUCH CLIMO. BUT
THE ONE THING THAT STICKS OUT IS THE PHYSICS. THE GFS, AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, DEVELOPS A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH AND THE TROPICAL AIR MASS MOVING NORTH
CAUSING THE INTERACTION TO PRODUCE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHING. THE
EURO DOES NOT DO THIS(OR AT THE VERY LEAST A SLIGHT INFLECTION IN
WINDS AT H3) EVENTHOUGH IT BRINGS JUST AS STRONG OF A THERMAL
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. LOGIC, OR IN THIS CASE, PHYSICS
WOULD SAY THAT THE GFS WOULD WIN OUT BRINGING THIS MASS OF SH/TS
WITH A LOT OF RAINFALL INTO OUR AREA OR VERY CLOSE TO IT AS IT
FOLLOWS THE OLD STALLED BOUNDARY INSTEAD OF STALLING IT OVER EAST
TX. THIS COULD JUST ALL COME DOWN TO A TIMING ISSUE AS WELL SINCE
THE EURO SLOWLY MOVES THE TROP FEATURE MUCH SLOWER NORTHWARD
CAUSING A DELAY IN UPPER TROUGH COUPLING WHILE THE GFS CRASHES THE
TWO FEATUERS TOGETHER MUCH QUICKER. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE
LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL DISPOSITION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST.
WHILE BOTH HAVE WHATEVER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY, THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PICKING THAT
UP AND SWEEPING IT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRYING BEHIND IT (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FALLING BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT). THE ECMWF 13/12Z
RUN KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN, THEN EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY GETTING IT EAST OF THE AREA AT
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH MODEL SCENARIOS DO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS ARE VERY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE'LL HOLD ONTO THE NBM POP GUIDANCE FOR NOW, WHICH TENDS
TO HOLD PROBABILITIES IN THE 40 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY, AND
CONSIDERABLY LOWER AT NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO 90 MOST DAYS,
ALTHOUGH THAT'LL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY NOT GET MUCH BELOW 80 IF WE DON'T GET SOME DRIER
AIR TO MIX IN AT SOME POINT. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY THE NBM
FORECAST DEW POINTS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD OCCUR FROM BTR TO MCB THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THIS CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS A
RESULT, A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE THE SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET. BY TUESDAY, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
STALL, BRINGING A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS MAY ALSO TREND A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW GULF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO THEN NORTHWARD NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST BY MID-WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW TO THE WEST
AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM
EAST TO WEST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE
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