118
FXUS64 KLIX 150645
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
145 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
AN H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. BEING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE, OUR AREA IS IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS ALSO THE REASON WHY OUR DRY
AND HOT PATTERN IS TURNING INTO A COOLER AND WETTER ONE AS A
SURFACE FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I20/I10 CORRIDORS. THIS
WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WITH LIKELY THE MORE
WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OCCURING DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND THIS MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND AREA
EVENTUALLY.
LOOKING MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WE
WILL BE WATCHING A SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THAT
TRIES TO DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST
BEFORE MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
LATER THIS WEEK. AS IT DOES THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES STRONGER WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS
FEATURE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC GROWS
TIGHTER. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH MAY ALSO SIGNAL SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS AS WELL. AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES NORTH
AND EAST, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A LARGE INFLUX OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE OF CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN VERY EFFICIENT RATES WITH PWATS UPWARD OF 2.25 INCHES.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN LAST
AGAIN BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND POPS. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE 14/18Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE 14/12Z ECMWF
OPERATIONAL RUN WITH A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT TROPICAL
CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE, TRACKING THE CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
WHILE THAT MAY BE THE LAST ORGANIZED BURST OF CONVECTION, IT'S
LIKELY TO LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, WHICH IS ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, UNTIL SUNDAY. NO REAL SIGNS OF ANYTHING TO
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THERE'S GOING TO
BE A DRY DAY, PROBABLY WON'T BE UNTIL SUNDAY. OF COURSE, WITH THE
AIRMASS THAT MOIST, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA.
HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH PAST 90, BUT MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY IF THE FORECAST DRYING IN THE
SOUNDINGS OCCURS. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME FALLING BELOW 75 DEGREES. (RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR/MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS MORNING, EVEN BEFORE SUNRISE
LEADING TO SOME AM VIS/CIG ISSUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, THIS EVENING RAIN
CHANCES DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. AS
A RESULT, A STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE THE SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET. BY TUESDAY, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY
STALL, BRINGING A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS MAY ALSO TREND A BIT HIGHER AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW GULF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO THEN NORTHWARD NEAR THE TEXAS
COAST BY MID-WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW TO THE WEST
AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM
EAST TO WEST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF POSSIBLY LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LATER ON IN THE WEEK. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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