445
FXUS64 KLIX 160517 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
- RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL EXITS AS WELL WITH FORECAST AREAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES PROBABLY 3/4 OF
THE COUNTRY, WITH ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST COAST STATES NOT
UNDER THIS TROUGH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LAST NIGHT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE, BUT CONTINUES TO RESIDE WITHIN A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DATA MEASURED A RECORD HIGH PW FOR
THE JUNE 15TH, 2.41".
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, CAMS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG ANY REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, BUT NOT OVERLY STRONG,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GENERALLY MODEST CAPE AND WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT, STORMS SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED
OVERALL. HOWEVER, THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. ANY STORMS THAT TRAIN OR
REPEATEDLY DEVELOP OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. AS WE SAW THIS MORNING ALONG THE MS COAST, UPWARDS OF 5-10
INCHES IN SMALL AREAS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
WERE THAT THE HIGHER RISK WOULD BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WHILE THATS STILL TRUE BASED ON CAMS IN GENERAL, BUT THIS
MORNING PROVED IT CAN HAPPEN PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE LOCALLY.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR COASTAL LA PARISHES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXTREMELY RARE.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
AND CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. UNLIKE TODAY, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT A
PARTIALLY DRIER SLOT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. SO AM CONCERNED
WITH MORNING STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHOUT A LULL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WET PATTERN
IN GENERAL WILL CONTINUE. THE BIGGEST INTEREST PEAK FALLS ON PLUME
OF MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THAT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
THROUGH TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO THE SABINE PASS BY THE START OF
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHATEVER FORM OF ORGANIZATION
THIS FEATURE IS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK,
LOCAL IMPACTS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY IT THUS WITH HEIGHT FALLS FROM SURFACE PRESSURE LOWERING,
MAKES SENSE TO SEE PLENTY OF RAINFALL WHICH RESULTS IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH RIVER FLOODING. OBVIOUSLY HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THE BULK OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH LOCAL IMPACTS FROM THAT
SYSTEM, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS CLEARED, BUT
THIS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY. COVERED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD MOSTLY WITH PROBS FOR TSRA. CIGS/VIS WILL BE REDUCED IN
AND AROUND CONVECTION AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT ERRATIC AND GUSTY AS
WELL, OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
STORMS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A STEADY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE THE
SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SW GULF IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE MOVING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE WEAK LOW TO THE WEST AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE ENTIRE GULF
VIA TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WELL
INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE SHOULD BE A GOOD PROCTOR FOR OBSERVED
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS, EXPECT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS MID/LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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