680
FXUS64 KLIX 160654
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
154 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- CONTINUING TO MONITOR A TROPICAL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST LATER THIS
WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (60%) OF DEVELOPMENT. MARINE AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
- RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL EXITS AS WELL WITH FORECAST AREAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE REGION RESIDES IN A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN AS THE
BASE OF THE VERY BROAD H5 TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
CAUSED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR NORTH AND WITH SEVERAL
SMALL IMPULSES ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW, SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN COMMON. OVERALL, CAMS IN MANY WAYS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO IDENTIFY SOME OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION SUCH AS THE
STORMS SOUTH OF VERMILLION BAY. HOWEVER, HRRR HAS PICKED UP ON THE
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OVER CENLA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EVEN
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE LIX 16/00Z
RAOB SHOWS A PWAT OF 2.2" WITH SIMILAR ALL ACROSS THE REGION. THAT
IN MIND ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES OF 5" PER HOUR OR HIGHER IN SOME
CASES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS PLUS
TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES, MADE NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FLOOD
WATCH, WHICH GOES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR TODAY, LOOKS WET. A BAND OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FAIRLY
HIGH NUMBERS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AGAIN GIVEN THE TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY. IN ADDITIONAL TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, SPC HAS ALSO PLACED OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
GOING INTO MIDWEEK EYES SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE A
TROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AS WELL AS THE LONG FETCH OVER THE GULF DEVELOPS,
SOME COASTAL FLOODING MAY RESULT. OTHERWISE, FROM THIS SYSTEM THE
PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IN THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE FEATURE
CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM EVENTUALLY OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE DEEP
TROPICS AGAIN KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH MOST
OF THE WORKWEEK.
WITH POPS HIGH AND CLOUDINESS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY, BUT WON'T GET SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW TWO INCHES
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS
REMAINING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY REMAIN AT LEAST A LOW END
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT IT SHOULDN'T BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ON FATHER'S DAY.
HIGHS LIKELY TO GET IN THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY, AND A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER EACH DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. (RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS CLEARED, BUT
THIS WILL ONLY BE TEMPORARY. COVERED SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD MOSTLY WITH PROBS FOR TSRA. CIGS/VIS WILL BE REDUCED IN
AND AROUND CONVECTION AND WINDS WILL BE A BIT ERRATIC AND GUSTY AS
WELL, OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
STORMS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A
STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP SEAS NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHILE
THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES REMAIN CLOSER TO 1 TO 2 FEET.
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BEFORE MOVING
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA MID TO LATE WEEK. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE WEAK TROPICAL LOW TO THE WEST AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. THUS, EXPECT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DURING
THIS MID/LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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