131
FXUS64 KLIX 170547
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
- CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE JUST OFF
THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70%)
OF DEVELOPMENT. MARINE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS.
- RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL WITH FORECAST AREAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS MUCH
HIGHER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER MICHIGAN AND MONTANA, WITH RIDGING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ONE) WAS JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AT LATE EVENING. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
MOST CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS,
BUT THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE EVENING SOUNDINGS AROUND THE
REGION RANGED FROM 2 TO 2.2 INCHES. THOSE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
DEFINITELY HAVE A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE (500 MB TEMPS -4
TO -6C), SO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION.
MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE ALREADY SEEN UPWARDS OF
5-8" RAIN, RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. SO WHILE STORMS MAY MOVE
INDIVIDUALLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, REPEATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SAME CORRIDOR COULD LEAD TO QUICK RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED QUITE A BIT HIGHER WHERE TRAINING OCCURS.
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE.
A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. LOW CLOUD
BASES, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (30KTS), SRH 200-300 SRH, AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRONGER SURFACE-BASED STORM THAT CAN INTERACT
WITH THE STALLED FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A FEW CIRCULATIONS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY MORNING, AND NOT MUCH WILL HAVE CHANGED THIS
MORNING. THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AND CONDITIONAL, BUT
BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THE OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND BOUNDARY-
RICH ENVIRONMENT.
TODAY REMAINS INTERESTING. THE LOW THAT PROMPTED TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CAMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION LOCALLY AS THAT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT'S LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SUBSIDENCE ON
THE PERIPHERY WHAT NHC FORECASTS WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM AT SOME
POINT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
QUITE SATURATED. WHAT YOU END UP WITH IS LESS CONVECTION, SO MORE
SUNSHINE WHICH ALLOWS FOR MORE WARMING AND MORE INSTABILITY. WEAK
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE THE BIGGEST LIMIT TO TOR POTENTIAL,
BUT STILL THINK THERE'S A LOW-END CONDITIONAL THREAT, ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON HOW
ORGANIZED THIS SYSTEM GETS, THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A BRIEF WIND
ADVISORY AT SOME POINT NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN.
THURSDAY CARRIES A MIX OF THREATS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT IN
DIFFERENT WAYS. REMNANT TROPICAL LOW WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA, BUT THAT WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN BAND TRAINING.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE'VE SEEN IN THE AREA TIME AND TIME AGAIN. THE
RESULT OF THIS SETUP IS WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH STREAKS OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CAMS SUGGEST A SWATH
OF 5 TO 10 INCH RAIN TOTALS, BUT 10-20" ISOLATED TOTALS CERTAINLY
WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. LIKE ALL EVENTS, IF THAT'S
OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE GULF, NO ONE BUT THE FISH ARE
IMPACTED. IF IT'S OVER LAND, MANY PEOPLE GET IMPACTED. THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SETUP POTENTIAL IS WEAK TORS EMBEDDED WITHIN ANY
STRONGER RAIN BANDS, ESPECIALLY WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ENHANCES NEAR- SURFACE INSTABILITY ALONG BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS WITHIN AN ALREADY MOIST, LOW- LCL, AND MODESTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ISN'T REALLY GOING TO HELP US DRY
OUT, AS IT WILL STILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES, WHICH
IS STILL ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, SO THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO AT LEAST SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL,
BUT IT STILL CAN'T BE IGNORED.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON'T GET PAST THE MID 80S TODAY, BUT AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPARTS ON THURSDAY, ANY GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CREEP BACK CLOSER TO 90. ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE WE GET INTO THE LOWER 90S. AND
WITH ALL THE WET GROUND AROUND, AND DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S, IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE RATHER STEAMY ANY
TIME THE SUN IS OUT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
GULF FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIDGING FURTHER TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE RIDGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER TEXAS FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. ANY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE DAILY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, AND GENERALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.
HIGHS LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FORECAST TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCB, WHERE LIFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE. THROUGH 12
TO 14Z, TSRA EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUM. THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS
POTENTIALLY SEEING GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS. LLWS WILL BE MENTIONED
IN SEVERAL TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ALOFT. UNLIKELY
TO BE A LOT OF IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM WILL STILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTH
TEXAS COAST IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TONIGHT.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE STRONG HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER LOCAL MARINE WATERS TO INCREASE VIA
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WELL
INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE SHOULD BE A GOOD PREDICTOR FOR
OBSERVED WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS
WON'T APPRECIABLY RELAX UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT FOR LAZ091-093-095-097.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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