049
FXUS64 KLIX 190603
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
103 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR TODAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE RE-ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
RAIN OR HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY OF THIS FCAST. THE HEAT IS NOT A
PROBLEM WHEN ITS CLOUDY AND RAINING. BUT LET THE RAIN END AND SUN
COME OUT RELEASING ALL THAT WATER INTO HUMIDITY AND WE GET HIGH
HEAT INDEX VALUES. FLOOD WATCHES AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT FOUND
TOGETHER DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME BUT THEY DEFINITELY CAN BE
ADJACENT. THIS IS THE CASE FOR TODAY AS FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
FOUND WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE FOR TRAINING STORMS TODAY. THIS
IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE NO
STORMS OR SHOWERS ANYWHERE, BUT INSTEAD OF THEM DEVELOPING AND
TRAINING OVER AREAS, THE SH/TS WILL BE MOVING.
ALL DEPARTING TROPICAL/EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEMS LEAVE WAKE TROUGHS
ALMOST ALWAYS ORIENTED IN THE DIRECTION THE SYSTEM DEPARTED THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS NO DIFFERENT AND ITS MAIN WAKE TROUGHING IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAKER WAKE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE MISS
SOUND INTO NEW ORLEANS AS WELL. BUT WITH THIS WEAKER ONE, A CAP
HAS DEVELOPED OVER IT NOT ALLOWING A LOT OF ACTIVITY TO FORM. THIS
IS NOT THE CASE FOR THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
MAKES IT VERY CHALLENGING TO KNOW WHERE TO PUT THE HEAT ADVISORY.
IT MAY BE PLACED TOO FAR NORTH IF THIS LINE SINKS SOUTH FASTER
THAN MODELS INDICATE. THIS TROUGH ALSO PROVIDES AN ARE WHERE SH/TS
CAN DEVELOP EASIER ALONG IT, AND IT PROVIDES A CONDUIT FOR STORMS
TO MOVE FROM THE WEST ALONG IT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
QUICKLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL ISSUES TODAY WITH ALL GROUNDS BEING
ABSOLUTELY SATURATED. LONG STORY LONGER, BASICALLY WE SHOULD SEE
MOST SH/TS DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS
TODAY THEN DECAY TOWARD SAT MORNING. THE WAKE TROUGHING REMAINS
BUT THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKLY CAP IT FOR SAT. SUNDAY
WILL SHOW STRONGER CAPPING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LEAVING A MUCH
EASIER DECISION OF WHERE TO PLACE THE HEAT ADVISORY. MONDAY SHOULD
BE MUCH THE SAME AS SUNDAY. TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
SEVERAL STORMS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE EACH DAY UNTIL THEY ARE ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUIETER YET HOT FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE TAKES OVER REDUCING RAIN CHANCES
AND BRINGING BACK THE HEAT WITH THE POSSIBILITIES OF ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
THERE IS NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM APPARENT.
AFTER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A FEW TIMES THIS WEEKEND WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY
OUT. THAT WEAKNESS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND EASTERN TX THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO WILL FILL IN HEADING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND STRETCHING EAST ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
INCREASE IN SUPPRESSION AND LOWER PWATS WILL LEAD TO MUCH LOWER POPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. COMBINE THAT WITH
H85 TEMPS AROUND 19C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 100S TO NEAR 110.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST STARTS TO
BUILD AND TAKE OVER. IN RESPONSE BROAD L/W TROUGHING STARTS TO TAKE
OVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO RETURN AND
POSSIBLY SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
MVFR CIGS NORTH TO VFR CIGS SOUTH THROUGH MID MORNING
TODAY THEN ALL VFR BY NOON. VIS SHOULD STAY MVFR TO VFR AS WELL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSRA CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY AGAIN
TODAY. TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LOWERED THIS MORNING AS WINDS
EASE. MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ529-531>536-
541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083-086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ531>536-541-
543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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