886
FXUS64 KLIX 201051
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
551 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 459 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 110
DEGREES FOR TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE RE-ISSUED INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
TODAY WILL NOT BE A LOT DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. A WEAK CAP HAS
KEPT THINGS FROM FIRING EARLY BUT AS TEMPS GET INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S, THE BOUYANCY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THIS CAP AND THINGS
GET GOING(TRIGGER TEMP). THERE IS ANOTHER FEATURE THAT WILL HELP
TODAY AND WE CAN ALREADY SEE THIS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LITTER THE MAP AND THIS WILL GIVE SOME EXTRA FORCING TO
HELP GET THINGS GOING EVEN DURING THE MOST STABLE MORNING HOURS AS
THE CAP STRENGTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WHOLE AREA. WHERE THESE STORMS ARE
ONGOING, HEAT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM, BUT WHEN THESE END OR AREAS
WHERE THEY HAVE NOT VISITED, TEMPS WILL FEEL A LOT HOTTER. ANY OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND
TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE VARIABLES. WITH
ALL AREAS SATURATED, THE HIGH RAIN RATES WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE VERY CAPABLE OF FLOODING RAINFALL WHERE THEY OCCUR. THE
AREA THAT IS BEST SUITED TODAY IS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES ALONG THE LA/MS STATE LINE. THIS EAST-WEST LINE
HAS THE WEAKEST CAP STRENGTH ACROSS THE AREA SO IT DOES NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET SOMETHING GOING THERE. EVENTHOUGH THE CAP STRENGTH IS
BETTER TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE, STRONG HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
BREAK IT LATER TODAY. SO BASICALLY, TWO MAIN AREAS OF STORMS
SHOULD BE DEVELOPING AT DIFFERENT TIMES DUE TO THE FORCING
MECHANISMS. THE FIRST IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND WITH HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM NORTH OF BTR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISS RIVER TO NEW
ORLEANS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THERE. THERE STILL IS NOT A LOT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT WITH ANY OF THIS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PROPAGATING ALONG OR WITH OUTFLOWS. SO, WITH HIGH RAIN RATES, ANY
OF THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES. SAT NIGHT WILL SHOW
MUCH THE SAME PROCESS WHERE MOST STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS SAME WEAKNESS THAT IS PERSISTANT ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES BY SUN MORNING. MORE STORMS
DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY SUNDAY THEN DECAY AGAIN
OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. BUT THIS TIME SOMETHING BEGINS TO CHANGE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE WEAK HIGH
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF HOLDING A CENTER PRESSURE OF
1015MB BEGINS TO GET REINFORCEMENTS WITH STRONGER RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC HIGH RIDGING INTO THE GULF STACKING THIS HIGH CAUSING A
MUCH STRONGER CAP TO FORM ALONG MOST OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY. ONE
CAN EASILY FIND THIS BY WATCHING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF GO FROM A WEAK 1015 TO 1020MB AS WE GET
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK. THIS WILL QUICKLY CUT
OFF THE SPICKET FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND MOST OF THE DAY TUE. AN
EAST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO BUILD SYNOPTICALLY WHICH MEANS THIS
TROUGHING BENDS BACK AND ORIENTS ITSELF IN A NW TO SE MANNER FROM
THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SE CONUS BY LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL GIVE A PATH/CONDUIT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SE
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WITH
SEVERE STORMS ON THE TABLE ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
SETUP AND THIS TIME THEY SHOULD BE MOVING, SO RESIDENCE TIME WOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY. WE WILL NEED TO GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THIS TIME FRAME TO SEE WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP SINCE
IT WILL BE THE TELL OF WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
TUESDAY WILL SEE LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES AS A BROAD DEEP
LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF SOUTH. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110 AND ONLY SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE THE
WEAKEST, ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE STRONG.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN OUT THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF AND REDUCE THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP OVER
THE AREA. A NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT OF RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BACK
TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM
20 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT NORTH OF
THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY DIURNAL
WITH COVERAGE PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 90S. LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH WET
MICROBURSTS BOTH DAYS. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
HELP TO PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, OR JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. [PG/SCHLOTZ]
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MVFR CIGS NORTH TO VFR CIGS CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING.
MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA
AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL AS WELL CAUSING TEMPO CIG AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO IFR AND LIFR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECAY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN VALUES FOR LATE TONIGHT SUN MORNING CIGS THAT SHOULD
FALL INTO IFR RANGES NORTH TO MVFR SOUTH. VIS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
MVFR MAINLY NORTH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEW WEEK. PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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