055
FXUS64 KLIX 211052
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
552 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. LOWER NUMBERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY
OUT.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 108 DEGREES AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY.
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID
WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED AREAS
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
AFTER LOOKING AT EVERYTHING WE CAN GET OUR EYES ON TO FIND ANY
CHANGE IN THIS WET PATTERN, WE HAVE FOUND IT. LOOKING AT THE BIG
PIC, SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING, ONE CAN EASILY SEE IN WV IMAGERY THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED COMING FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
EASTPAC AREAS THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE AREA WITH TROPICAL
RAINFALL FOR A WHILE NOW. NOW TAKE A LOOK STAGE RIGHT AT AN
INCOMING TUTT LOW IN THAT WV IMAGERY. THIS DOES NOT LOOK EXCITING
AT FIRST, BUT WHAT THIS WILL DO LATER TODAY AND THIS WEEK WILL BE
VERY HELPFUL. THE DRY AIR ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS OF
THIS TUTT LOW WILL MOVE INTO THIS TROPICAL PLUME BASICALLY CUTTING
IT IN AN EAST WEST FASHION. THE WAY TO SEE THIS IS WITH ANY
GLOBAL MODEL WITH RH IMAGERY USING AN ATMOSPHERIC LAYER FROM 850MB
UP TO 700MB. THEN USING H3 WIND BARBS, ONE CAN EASILY SEE THE
TUTT LOWS POSITION AT THE YUCATAN PEN AND EVENTUAL PATH IT WILL
TAKE AS WELL AS HOW THE DRY AIR IMPACTS THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME.
THIS IS WHAT CAUSES OUR SH/TS COVERAGE TO BE CUT TO ALMOST ZERO BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUT THEN A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SET
UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BE NW TO SE FOR OUR AREA BRINGING US A NW FLOW
REGIME. THIS FLOW WILL BRING MCS TYPE FEATURES FROM THE RED RIVER
REGION INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE TUE OR OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BUT
THE THING THAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME IS THERE IS NO DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PW VALUES BEGIN TO DROP TODAY FROM
A SOUPY 2.25" TO 1.3" BY TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THESE STORMS WILL BE
MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WX INSTEAD OF FLOODING RAINFALL.
THE FASTER MOVEMENT WILL ALSO ADD TO LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
ANY PARTICULAR AREA THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL BE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WX,
JUST THE ODDS ARE BETTER THAN FLOODING RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THIS IS
NOT FACTORING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS SIGNAL OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING CUT OFF IS QUITE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BASICALLY, CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS US THAT THE MAY-JUNE TIME FRAME
BRINGS THIS DEEP MOISTURE FEED NORTHWARD INTO SOME LOCATION ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TX. IT'S EVEN BEEN AS FAR WEST AS
LAREDO UP TO SAN ANTONIO. THIS NORMALLY MAKES HEADLINES WITH
EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TALLIES WHEREVER IT LANDS LIKE IT
HAS FOR OUR AREA THIS YEAR. WHEREVER IT LANDS CAN BRING THOSE
LOCATIONS ALMOST A NORMAL YEAR WORTH OF RAINFALL WITHIN JUST A FEW
WEEKS. WAY BACK IN MY YOUNGER YEARS AS A MET, I WOULD HEAR THE
MORE SEASONED METS DISCUSS THIS CONVEYOR AS THE "GULF MONSOON" OR
THE "GULFPAC MONSOON". WHEN STUDIED, IT SHOWS THAT SOME YEARS ARE
WETTER THAN OTHERS. SOME OF MY CO-WORKERS AND I WERE DISCUSSING
HOW THIS FEATURE CAUSED SEVERE FLOODING IN THE PENSACOLA/MOBILE
AREA A FEW YEARS BACK AND HAS CAUSED CITY WIDE FLOODING OF HOUSTON
AND SAN ANTONIO IN PREVIOUS YEARS. BUT IT ALWAYS WENT OUT AS
QUICKLY AS IT CAME IN, AND BY JULY, THIS FEATURE IS NORMALLY GONE.
THE SIGNAL THAT IS COMING IN NOW WITH THE TUTT LOW(AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SW STACKED HIGH/DOWNSTREAM EAST COAST TROUGH)
COULD BE JUST THE THING THAT TAMES THIS FEATURE BUT WE WILL SEE
HOW THIS TRASFORMATION PROGRESSES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MEXICO, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGHING DEVELOPS,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A LARGE MCS COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, FOLLOWING THE
THETA-E MOISTURE AXIS, INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO TEMPER THE EXTREME
HEAT WITH HIGHS FALLING CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS DROPPING BACK TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OVERALL, THE DAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S AND SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
LOWEST AND NEAR AVERAGE POP FOR LATE JUNE OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT IS
FORECAST. SOUTH OF I-10, ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GROW AS THE
TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
RAIN CHANCES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE DIRECT RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR DROPPING
PWATS BELOW AVERAGE OR AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT REDUCES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BELOW
6.0 C/KM AND DROPS MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THE ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE UPDRAFT
COULD OCCUR.
BY SATURDAY A ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BAND OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC. THIS BRINGS
CLASSIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PREDOMINATING THE PATTERN. [PG/SCHLOTZ]
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE BUILT BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, BUT THESE CIGS AND ALL TERMINALS WILL GO VFR BEFORE NOON
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSRA THAT ARE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRASTICALLY LOWERING FLIGHT LEVELS TO
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR AND CAUSING STRONG GROUND AND SEVERE IN-FLIGHT
TURBULENCE FOR AT LEAST THE DURATION OF THE STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR TWO OF OUR TERMINALS ACTUALLY GO THROUGH THE DAY
WITHOUT A SH/TS BUT NOT LIKELY. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME
WITH LOWER CIGS NORTH CAUSING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND VFR
TOWARD THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH A LARGE EAST COAST
TROUGH DEVELOPING WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THIS WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page