847
FXUS64 KLIX 212346
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
646 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS RETURN MID WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THIS MORNING'S KLIX SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH
AMPLE CAPE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, BUT MODEST TO WEAK SHEAR. RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PLAYED A ROLE IN RECENT HEAVY RAIN EVENTS NO
LONGER EXISTS. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BUT NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OF ANY CELLS. BURF AND RRFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING IN THE 850MB-500MB LEVEL
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHEN YOU ZOOM OUT TO A MORE REGIONAL
PERSPECTIVE, THAT BECOMES QUITE EVIDENT. SO THINKING IS THAT THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO LESS CONVECTION WITH WIDESPREAD
DISSIPATION AS THE SUN SETS. TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR AS ZONAL
FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. CAMS SUGGEST THAT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION AND THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. TENDED TO AGREE WITH THIS, SO WENT ABOUT NBM BUT NOT BUT
ABOUT 10% ABOVE IT...JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME ZONES TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN IT.
OF CONCERN TOMORROW, SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE ON ALL SIDES OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. THATS THE AREAS WHERE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH THOSE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REACH/EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A TARGETED HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THOSE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MEXICO, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGHING DEVELOPS,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A LARGE MCS COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, FOLLOWING THE
THETA-E MOISTURE AXIS, INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO TEMPER THE EXTREME
HEAT WITH HIGHS FALLING CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS DROPPING BACK TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OVERALL, THE DAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S AND SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
LOWEST AND NEAR AVERAGE POP FOR LATE JUNE OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT IS
FORECAST. SOUTH OF I-10, ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GROW AS THE
TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
RAIN CHANCES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE DIRECT RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR DROPPING
PWATS BELOW AVERAGE OR AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT REDUCES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BELOW
6.0 C/KM AND DROPS MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THE ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE UPDRAFT
COULD OCCUR.
BY SATURDAY A ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BAND OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC. THIS BRINGS
CLASSIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PREDOMINATING THE PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN SO FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS WITH THE FOLLOWING
EXCEPTIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS. BTR MAY REACH MVFR FROM 15Z,
GPT FROM 08Z TO 15Z WILL SEE MVFR, AND MCB FROM 11Z TO 17Z WILL
SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLY TOUCHING IFR. /SCHLOTZ/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS
LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, THE CENTER OF THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIVEN WEST AND INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL GULF.
THAT WILL PUT IT RIGHT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DECREASE THE WIND FIELD. SO EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
TUES AND WED. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AND TRACKS EAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE
CENTER THAN TRACKS BACK EAST WHICH BRINGS OUR WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ058-064-
076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...ME
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