609
FXUS64 KLIX 221100
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES
105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS RETURN MID WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIENTED SW-NE
OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO GET PICHED BY DEEP DRY AIR ON BOTH
SIDES OF IT. THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FINALLY ENDING THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF AND EASTPAC AREAS.
NOW ALL THIS MOISTURE CAN CONCENTRATE OVER THE EASTPAC TO DEVELOP
TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MAINLY MOVE WESTWARD. WE WILL STILL GET A
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT IT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE ATLANTIC/CARRIBEAN AREAS ON EASTERLIES INSTEAD. THIS
WILL FINALLY MOVE US INTO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.
THIS DOES GIVE WAY TO THE WESTERLIES PLAYING A ROLE IN OUR DAY TO
DAY WEATHER THIS WEEK AND THIS IS WHAT OCCURS TUE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP TODAY AND
TUE CAUSING THE UPPER JET TO ORIENT NW TO SE FROM OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN MISS, OR AT LEAST THIS IS THE PART WE ARE CONCERNED WITH.
MCS FEATURES WILL DEVELOP TO THE NW AND MOVE DOWN THIS PATH INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON TUE. OUTFLOWS
FROM THESE STORMS COULD CAUSE NEW ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FARTHER
SOUTH OF THEIR PATH SO STORMS WON'T ONLY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIRD OF THE AREA, IT'S JUST THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE
FOUND THERE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS, THEY WILL BE TRASITORY WITH RESIDENCE TIMES OF UP TO
AN HOUR WITH NO TRAINING EXPECTED. THE ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE IS
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. IF ANY PARTICULAR AREA HAS NOT HAD AMPLE
DRYING TIME, A QUICK INCH OF RAIN CAN STILL CAUSE ISSUES,
OTHERWISE THIS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE AN ISSUE. THE PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHER FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THAN IT WOULD BE FOR FLOODING
RAINS SO WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW WELL AREAS DRY OUT BEFORE TUE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MEXICO, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF CONUS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGHING DEVELOPS,
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A LARGE MCS COULD FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD, FOLLOWING THE THETA-E MOISTURE AXIS, INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO HELP TO TEMPER THE EXTREME HEAT WITH HIGHS FALLING
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS DROPPING BACK TO BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST
AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGIN TO INCREASE.
OVERALL, THE DAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S AND SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-10 WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
LOWEST AND NEAR AVERAGE POP FOR LATE JUNE OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT IS
FORECAST. SOUTH OF I-10, ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE GROW AS THE
TROUGH PULLS OUT OF THE AREA. A RETURN TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
RAIN CHANCES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE DIRECT RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR DROPPING
PWATS BELOW AVERAGE OR AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE INCREASING MID-
LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT REDUCES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BELOW
6.0 C/KM AND DROPS MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG.
THE ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE UPDRAFT
COULD OCCUR.
BY SATURDAY A ZONAL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL BAND OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC TO ATLANTIC. THIS BRINGS
CLASSIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
PREDOMINATING THE PATTERN. CONCURRENTLY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SWEEPING EASTWARD AND BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED TO
OUR NORTH EXTENDING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG LOW WILL BE
SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE; MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE AND ITS
IMPACTS IN FUTURE DISCUSSIONS. [SCHLOTZ]
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY MOVE OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN
TUE MORNING WHILE ALL OTHER TERMINALS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. TSRA IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISSUES TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS
LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, THE CENTER OF THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIVEN WEST AND INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL GULF.
THAT WILL PUT IT RIGHT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DECREASE THE WIND FIELD. SO EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS
TUES AND WED. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AND TRACKS EAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE
CENTER THEN TRACKS BACK EAST WHICH BRINGS OUR WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ058-064-076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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