883
FXUS64 KLIX 230509
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1209 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 TO 110
DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN/MAUREPAS AGAIN TODAY.
- MOST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT
SCATTERED STORMS RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
STORMS REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER NORTHERN LA THROUGH CENTRAL MS THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE FOLLOWING A FRONTAL AXIS ORIENTED NW TO
SE. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE IS ALSO QUITE
SUPRESSIVE RIGHT UP TO WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO
WEAKEN THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO GET STORMS GOING. THE FRONT IS
STILL MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WHICH MEANS
THIS LINE, WHERE STORMS A FORMING, WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BY
WED. FIRST, WE WILL START WITH TODAY. THIS LINE SHOULD BE LOCATED
FROM SHREVEPORT TO SLIDELL BY NOON TODAY. MODELS SHOW THIS FAIRLY
WELL AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT OF A PRECIP GRADIENT WITH
HIGHER NUMBERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE CURRENT SET OF
STORMS MOVING SE THIS MORNING SHOULD START TO RUN INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH CAUSING THEM TO
BEGIN DECAYING. BUT THEY WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS
TO DEVELOPING THORUGH THE DAY. THESE WILL ALL BE MOVING SE AT
AROUND 10 MPH SO THEY WON'T BE HANGING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
BUT THEY WILL STILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH AREAS
STILL TRYING TO DRY OUT, THEY COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES IN PLACES THAT WERE HIT THE HARDEST DURING THE TROPICAL
RAINFALLS. THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD
FOLLOW ALONG THE RED RIVER SOUTHEAST TO AND ALONG THE MISS RIVER
BY WED. NOT MANY STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DURING THIS TUE THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. THE STORMS THAT ARE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. AREAS SOUTH
OF THIS LINE WILL HAVE AMPLE HEATING AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE GETTING
TRAPPED AT THE SFC COUPLED WITH THIS HEATING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDSAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGS ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA WITH A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS CLASSIC
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PREDOMINATING THE
PATTERN. CONCURRENTLY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SWEEPING
EASTWARD AND BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG LOW WILL BE SPINNING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGINNING MONDAY WILL RIDE UP OVER
THE RIDGE AND COMPRESS IT LATERALLY; MORE TO COME ON THIS FEATURE
AND ITS IMPACTS IN FUTURE DISCUSSIONS. [SCHLOTZ]
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE TODAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY
MID MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OF TSRA ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MCB TO GPT TO SHOW IN THIS TAF SET FOR TODAY. TONIGHT
WILL SHOW THE SAME AREAS WITH LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLY LOW VIS WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS
LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, THE CENTER OF THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIVEN WEST AND INTO THE NORTH/CENTRAL GULF.
THAT WILL PUT IT RIGHT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
DECREASE WINDS. SO EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS AND TRACKS EAST, THE HIGH'S CENTER
THEN TRACKS BACK EAST WHICH BRINGS OUR WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ058-064-
076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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