746
FXUS64 KLIX 241044
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
544 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 452 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- MONITORING POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH GREATER
FOCUS/CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55, INCLUDING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. STAY UPDATED!
- STRONG HEAT WILL BE BACK WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO 110F
STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE NEWEST STORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LA THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR AREA(WILKINSON COUNTY) BY 4ISH AM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DECAY THIS COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SE, BUT THERE IS
NO STRONG SUPPRESSION TO ITS SE SINCE THE FRONTAL/QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY HAS SUNK FATHER SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS COULD HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING GIVING SOME
AREAS HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDER. THE COMPLEX IS
MOVING SE AT 25MPH SO IT WON'T BE HANGING AROUND. BUT WE DO
EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN AS IT DOES GET INTO THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT,
THINKING IS NO SEVERE WX WITH THIS ONE, BUT LATER TODAY WITH NEW
DEVELOPMENT, THAT WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE LEADING AXIS OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE RED/MISS RIVER SYSTEMS. SO, FROM ALONG THOSE
RIVERS AND NORTH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY. WHEN
ITEMIZING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, IT COMES UP DAMAGING WINDS FIRST,
HAIL SECOND, HEAVY RAINFALL THIRD AND TORNADOES LAST. TORNADOES
ARE NOT NORMALLY LAST ON ANY SEVERE WX VARIABLE LIST, BUT NW FLOW
STORMS ARE NOT NORMALLY TORNADOE PRODUCERS, BUT THE SAYING IN THE
MET WORLD IS "NEVER SAY NEVER". AND FLOODING ISSUES WOULD NOT
NORMALLY BE AN ISSUE WITH THESE IF THERE WEREN'T THE FEET OR RAIN
THAT FELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY,
THE FRONTAL AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD JUST A BIT BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
DROP STORM CHANCES BACK TO NEAR ZERO. FRIDAY AND SAT WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING BACK OVER THE GULF COAST CAUSING THE FRONT TO
SHIFT EVEN FARTHER NORTH BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO 15% OR
LESS FOR OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS MEANS THE HEAT WILL
BE BACK WITH US AND HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE BACK AS SOON AS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LONG SPILL ABOUT HEAT ADVISORIES. WE LOVE THE COMRADERY AND FUN
OUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY, AND EVEN CO-WORKERS HAVE WITH US ABOUT
THE SUMMER HEAT ADVISORY AND THEY USUALLY ASK RHETORICAL QUESTIONS
LIKE, "WHY HEAT ADVISORIES? IT'S JUNE/JULY/AUGUST IN SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. IT'S CALLED SUMMER, AND IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE
HOT.", I WAS INQUISITIVELY ASKED THIS QUESTION BY A FAMILY
FRIEND, SO I WILL GIVE THE REASON FOR THIS PRODUCT SINCE SOME MAY
NOT KNOW WHY IT WAS DEVELOPED AND ISSUED. HEAT ADVISORIES WERE
NOT UNIQUELY THOUGHT UP BY METEOROLOGISTS. LIKE SEVERAL PRODUCTS
SUCH AS AIR QUALITY ADVISORIES AND GLOBE TEMPERATURES/HEAT
ADVISORIES ETC... THE NWS DOES NOT COME UP WITH THE CRITERIA ALONE
TO PRODUCE THE HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING. THE CRITERIA WAS
DEVELOPED WITH HELP AND COORDINATION WITH MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS
TELLING US AT WHAT POINT THE BODY STARTS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH HEAT.
THIS FIELD DOES CHANGE AS BETTER TECHNIQUES ARE FOUND AND ONE OF
THOSE IS USING THE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE(WBGT) WHICH USES
DIRECT SUNLIGHT IN ITS EQUATION INSTEAD OF SHADE. YES, MY FRIEND
WAS ALSO STUNNED THAT WE MEASURE TEMPERATURE IN THE SHADE. I WON'T
GO INTO THE REASONING FOR THIS BUT PEOPLE DON'T ALWAYS WORK,
PLAY(SPORTS), FISH, ETC... IN THE SHADE. THE HEAT ADVISORY AND
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED TO LET YOU AND VISITORS(TOURISTS THAT MAY BE
FROM A COOLER, DRIER CLIMATE) KNOW WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A
RANGE THE BODY STARTS TO HAVE PROBLEMS GETTING RID OF HEAT...EVEN
IF YOU ARE IN THE SHADE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A VERY STRONG 595 DECAMETER 500MB HIGH WILL BE PARKED DIRECTLY OVER
THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS STRONG
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BOTH WARM AND DRY THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH THAT A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
PLACE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
LOW POP IN PLACE EACH DAY. THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES THAT WE WILL
HAVE WILL BE IF TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN
THE MID 90S AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE IS IN PLACE TO OVERCOME
THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. THUS, A TOKEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT IS IN
THE FORECAST, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FOR VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ONE
ISSUE TO NOTE WILL BE IF ANY STORMS FORM, THEY COULD QUICKLY
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ENTRAINS INTO THE UPDRAFT RESULTING IN SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING
WITHIN THE UPDRAFT ITSELF. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
MONDAY WILL HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMBINING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME HEAT IN THE
REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL EASILY CLIMB TO AROUND 110 DEGREES EACH
DAY, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ON TUESDAY, THE STRONG 500MB RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE RIDGE AND INTO OUR REGION AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING VORTICITY AND FORCING ALOFT COMBINED WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDING ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONTINUED HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE DEEPEST
UPDRAFTS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EASILY ENTRAINED INTO THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER, THE ADDED FORCING ALOFT WILL HELP THESE STORMS LAST LONGER
AND POTENTIALLY FORM INTO EITHER A MCS OR A BOW ECHO AS IT BECOMES
COLD POOL DOMINATED. THE STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SWEEP TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON
THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 110 DEGREES
BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE IN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ALL OTHER SITES WILL
REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY IN VFR. THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OF
TSRA ALONG, NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MCB TO ASD TO SHOW IN
THIS TAF SET FOR TODAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TEMP IFR. TONIGHT
WILL SHOW THE SAME AREAS WITH LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLY LOW VIS WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK, MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
SURGE SOUTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY INLAND FRONT TODAY AND THURSDAY,
CAUSING STRONG ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WEAKEN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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