395
FXUS64 KLIX 241615
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1115 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- MONITORING POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH GREATER
FOCUS/CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55, INCLUDING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS.
- STRONG HEAT WILL BE BACK WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO 110F
STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WHICH IS USUALLY
A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AND, INDEED, UPSTREAM THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW AREAS OF STORMS DEVELOP. IN ADDITIONAL TO A SERIES
OF H5 IMPULSES, THERE RESIDES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS JUNCTURE,
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT OVERALL TRENDS FAVORS SOUTH MS INCLUDING
THE MS GULF COAST. THIS IS WERE BOTH WPC PLACES A SLIGHT ERO AND
SPC PUT A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. THE LIX 24/12Z RAOB SHOWED A
FAVORABLE DCAPE (GENERALLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG), WHICH
SIGNIFIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE WIDER AND MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORY BECOMING LESS ABOUT POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND MORE ABOUT
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES GRADUALLY OVER OUR
REGION BUILDING FROM AROUND 590DAM TO 594DAM. WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
AND LESS OF A SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL
BOUNDARIES, CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO FIND BEYOND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE BOARD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
GOING LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT'S GOING TO BE
HOT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG ~596DAM RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR. WITH STILL WET GROUNDS, THE HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM
WITH LIKELY HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO FOR AT LEAST
SOME SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. COUPLED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE, SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LITTLE BY LITTLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, AGAIN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME CONVECTION NORTH OF I10/12, BUT GPT AND MCB HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL...WITH CONVECTION THERE CAN BE BRIEF LOWERING CIGS/VIS
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAK AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT START TO FAVOR A WEST OR SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK, MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
SURGE SOUTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY INLAND FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY,
CAUSING STRONG ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WEAKEN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page