952
FXUS64 KLIX 242345
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
645 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- MONITORING POSSIBLE COMPLEX OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY, WITH GREATER
FOCUS/CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55, INCLUDING COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS.
- STRONG HEAT WILL BE BACK WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS UP TO 110F
STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WHICH IS USUALLY
A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR MCS ACTIVITY AND, INDEED, UPSTREAM THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW AREAS OF STORMS DEVELOP. IN ADDITIONAL TO A SERIES
OF H5 IMPULSES, THERE RESIDES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY. AT THIS JUNCTURE,
THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT OVERALL TRENDS FAVORS SOUTH MS INCLUDING
THE MS GULF COAST. THIS IS WERE BOTH WPC PLACES A SLIGHT ERO AND
SPC PUT A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE. THE LIX 24/12Z RAOB SHOWED A
FAVORABLE DCAPE (GENERALLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG), WHICH
SIGNIFIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE WIDER AND MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY A PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STORY BECOMING LESS ABOUT POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND MORE ABOUT
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES GRADUALLY OVER OUR
REGION BUILDING FROM AROUND 590DAM TO 594DAM. WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
AND LESS OF A SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE OUTSIDE OF DIURNAL
BOUNDARIES, CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO FIND BEYOND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING WELL ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE BOARD. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
GOING LATER INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT'S GOING TO BE
HOT WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG ~596DAM RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES ALLOWING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO SOAR. WITH STILL WET GROUNDS, THE HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM
WITH LIKELY HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO FOR AT LEAST
SOME SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. COUPLED WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE, SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LITTLE BY LITTLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, AGAIN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BE THE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS HAVE COME TO AN END IN THE PAST HOUR NEAR GPT,
NEW, AND MSY, AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS
CURRENTLY FORMING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW, AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH PROB30
WORDING AT MCB, HDC, ASD, NEW, AND MSY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. AT GPT, TWO
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL. THE FIRST
ROUND MAY FORM AROUND 08-09Z AND LINGER THROUGH 11-12Z AS STORMS
FIRE UP ALONG THE LANDBREEZE JUST OFFSHORE AND SPREAD INLAND. THE
SECOND ROUND WOULD THEN BE THE MCS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 12Z. AS IS THE CASE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE THREATS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PROB30 WORDING FROM
08Z TO 14Z. ANY CONVECTIVE THREATS WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK, MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL
SURGE SOUTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY INLAND FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY,
CAUSING STRONG ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND WINDS WEAKEN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RDF
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