693
FXUS64 KLIX 081747
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
HOT DAYS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW,
BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
GENERALLY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC
BERMUDA HIGH WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SOME
WEAKNESSES IN THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF COAST THAT ALLOW SHALLOW
INTRUSIONS OF LOWER PRESSURE AND WEAK TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE,
THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF PROVIDING
SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. TYPICAL
WEATHER PATTERN IS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
APPARENT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW THE 108 DEGREE THESHOLD FOR HEAT
HEADLINES, OVERNIGHT LOWS HANG IN THE UPPER 70S GIVING SLIGHT
OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOLING, AND CONVECTION IS GOVERNED BY SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES AFTER INTIAL CONVECTION
COLLAPSES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THAT WEAK TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY, INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (2.10 INCHES) AND POSSIBLY
TOPPING OUT AROUND 2.3 INCHES ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR THE
MEAN (1.7 INCHES) BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE (SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS) CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING CONVECTIVELY FAVORED TIMES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PEAK HEATING HOURS OVER LAND ZONES, LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING IN MARINE AREAS. OF COURSE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT HIGH, THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT PINPOINTING EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR 5 OR 6 DAYS
FROM NOW IS PROBLEMATICAL. AS THE COLUMN DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT LATE ON
TUESDAY, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, AND A
LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND DCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG, SO THE WIND THREAT WILL
INCREASE.
STILL LOOKS TO BE RATHER WARM ON SUNDAY, AS STORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS PROBABLY 90 TO 95. AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS INCREASES MONDAY AND LIKELY DEVELOPS A LITTLE EARLIER, SO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. GUIDANCE FROM
THE TUESDAY GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS WAS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF
EACH OTHER, SO THERE'S NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE NBM
NUMBERS. WON'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT, THE NUMBERS SAY IT'S BORDERLINE AT
BEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WINDS SHIFT TO DUE SOUTH THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND BUT
REMAIN AROUND 10KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY, MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW MAY BE STRONG
PRODUCING ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND/OR WATERSPOUTS, WITH LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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