425
FXUS64 KLIX 091713
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND,
VERY NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH HOT DAYS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CHANCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE HAVE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REFLECTIVE OF A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
ATLANTIC BERMUDA HIGH WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE
SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE NORTHCENTRAL GULF COAST THAT ALLOW SHALLOW
INTRUSIONS OF LOWER PRESSURE AND WEAK TROUGHING. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF PROVIDING SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. DAYTIME HIGHS
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES STAY JUST
BELOW THE 108 DEGREE THESHOLD FOR HEAT HEADLINES, OVERNIGHT LOWS
HANG IN THE UPPER 70S GIVING ONLY SLIGHT OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOLING
OFF AT NIGHT. CONVECTION IS GOVERNED BY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
REMNANT BOUNDARIES AFTER INTIAL CONVECTION COLLAPSES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WYOMING SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH A WEAKER RIDGE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN WILL BE
A WEAKNESS OR TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED NEAR INTERSTATE 40
SUNDAY EVENING, JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY EVENING, AND BE
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY HEAD SOUTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK AND TO GEORGIA OR THE
CAROLINAS BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT'S WELL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (1.9 INCHES) WILL INCREASE
TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE (2.1 INCHES) MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE TROUGH NEVER REALLY GETS OFF THE COAST, SO ANY MID LEVEL
DRYING LOOKS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS ENSEMBLES HOLDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT LEAST NEAR THE
75TH PERCENTILE.
THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS WOULD
SIGNAL A WETTER (AND NOT AS HOT) PERIOD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY, AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY. IF FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS
ARE ANY INDICATION, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MAY ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S, WHICH WOULD MEAN AN EARLIER START TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (BEFORE NOON) AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A CUMULATIVE SENSE COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
IN THE SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD, WITH WPC FORECASTS CURRENTLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THAT PERIOD, WITH THE MORE
FAVORED PORTION BEING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WE'LL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THOSE TRENDS PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. (RW/DSS)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ADDRESSED BY PROB30 CODING, AND
DISSIPATES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. ANY
LOCAL STORMS COULD BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR DUE TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DRIFTING
BETWEEN SSW AND SSE AND REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. INTO THE NEW
WEEK AND ACCOMPANYING A PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM THE WINDS SWITCH TO
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT OR BELOW 10KT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE MAINTAIN
THE DIURNAL CHARACTER OF THE POP-UP CONVECTION INCLUDING THE CHANCES
FOR WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY HEAVIER WINDS. ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL
ACTIVITY WE SEE A WIDER COVERAGE OF RAIN OFFSHORE, BOTH SPATIALLY
AND TEMPORALLY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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