210
FXUS64 KLIX 100639
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
139 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A VERY CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH HOT DAYS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
H5 RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST GULF.
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AFTERNOON CONVECTION, ALBEIT IT MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SURFACE FLOW SLIGHTLY
INCREASES TODAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH A BIT BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE, HAD TO CONSIDER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THAT THERE
ARE STILL QUESTIONS IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND HOW EARLY CONVECTION
FIRES THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO BE CLOSE TO CRITERIA AROUND THE TIDAL LAKES AND MS GULF
COAST.
GOING INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
STEADILY AS THE SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE MEETS A FRONT THAT WILL
STALL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE QPF
FORECAST IS ON AVERAGE AROUND 2" OR SO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 2.0" EXPECT SOME
LOCATIONS TO GET HIGHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS. OTHERWISE,
OUTSIDE OF HYDRO POTENTIAL ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, INVERSELY, AS POPS INCREASE DAYTIME HIGHS DROP JUST
A BIT WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKING TO ONLY WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, PRIOR TO THIS TIME WE WILL
STILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY BECAUSE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF
NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING,
WITH A WEAKER RIDGE NEAR THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN, WILL BE A WEAKNESS
OR TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING,
BEFORE DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE (2.1 INCHES) MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT OF A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN WE WERE LOOKING AT 24 HOURS
AGO. WE DO START TO SEE SOME DRYING BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE DRIER THAN THE ECMWF BASED
DATA. GFS BASED SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1.6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND CLOSER TO 1.4 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
TUESDAY MIGHT NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN MONDAY (PROBABLY IN THE
LIKELY RANGE), BUT WE SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS ONLY ISOLATED STORMS THURSDAY
OR MAYBE EVEN COMPLETELY DRY IF THE GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
PLAYS OUT SOMEWHAT ACCURATELY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH AN INCH OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THIS
AT LEAST HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO CAUSE DRAINAGE PROBLEMS, AND WPC IS
FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 12Z TUESDAY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR TUESDAY MIGHT BE A BIT
OPTIMISTIC IF WE DON'T GET ANY SUNSHINE. WE SHOULD GET BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL (90 TO 92) WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER ON
THURSDAY IF WE DON'T HAVE TOO MUCH WATER TO DRAIN OFF. WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY DRIER DEW POINTS AS WE GET TO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO WE
COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT PROBABLY STILL IN
THE 70S, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT NBM NUMBERS DON'T REFLECT THAT
TREND. (RW)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. HOWEVER, LIKE THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WHERE VIS/CIGS COULD BE REDUCED TO
MVFR OR LOWER IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY, WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION AND WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES BEING OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE OPEN
GULF. (FRYE)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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