877
FXUS64 KLIX 101812
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A VERY CLASSIC SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH HOT DAYS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS EACH DAY
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL CYCLE.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE PRIMARILY WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED DAILY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY SUB-SEVERE WINDS (40-50MPH). PWS
ARE QUITE HIGH WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0", SO SOME STREET FLOODING
AND PONDING OF ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE A GREATER CONCERN FOR URBAN AREAS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 103-108 DEGREES DAILY
THROUGH SUNDAY. IF POPS ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, HEAT WILL BE A
LARGER CONCERN. CONVERSELY, IF POPS ARE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, HEAT
WILL BE A LESSER CONCERN. MSW
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TO ENHANCE RAINFALL CHANCES. PWS WILL
BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND WARM RAIN PROCESSES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. GENERALLY, 2-4
INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR OUR AREA BY WPC, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS
THE RAINFALL CONCERNS.
THURSDAY AND ONWARD, RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND WE
START TO RETURN TO OUR NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RAIN CHANCES. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED AT ALL
AREA AIRPORTS TODAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS WHERE THESE STORMS OCCUR. WIND SHIFTS GREATER THAN 30
DEGREES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS OCCUR. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. MOSTLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY, WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION AND WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES BEING OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE OPEN
GULF.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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