442
FXUS64 KLIX 120515 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD INCREASING HEAT, WITH
HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS RECENTLY EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS CONTINUES TO RETREAT WESTWARD, WHILE HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALL ALONG ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL
ESTABLISH A WEAKNESS OVER THE REGION AND HELP DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE CYCLE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY TODAY.
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND, WITH DEVELOPMENT TRANSITIONING INLAND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE HAS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN DURING PREVIOUS DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE MOST RECENT 12Z KLIX SOUNDING DEPICTS A FAIRLY TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR THE DAILY MEAN OF 1.8".
A MODEST MID LEVEL DRY LAYER AND DCAPE NEAR 800 J/KG COULD ALLOW
STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY, GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE WINDS. MEAN
STORM MOTION WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, ALTHOUGH COLD-
POOL OUTFLOWS AND INTERACTIONS WITH OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE
MORE VARIABLE AND OCCASIONALLY DEVIANT MOTION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN LOCALIZED.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDES SOMEWHAT
GREATER LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT. THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY,
SEA BREEZE AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL
POTENTIAL INITIATION POINTS. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEREVER STORMS REPEATEDLY DEVELOP
OR MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IS UNLIKELY TO BE
RESOLVED WELL IN ADVANCE. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR COASTAL AREAS EARLIER IN THE DAY, EXPANDING
INLAND AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST HEAVY-RAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE MONDAY AS THE UPPER WEAKNESS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA. A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING THE DAILY
MAXIMUM NEAR 2.4 INCHES, WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR
SLOW-MOVING STORMS, BACKBUILDING AND LOCALIZED TRAINING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED CONVECTION OCCURS. THESE HIGHER TOTALS
COULD PRODUCE RAPID PONDING, FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POORLY
DRAINED LOCATIONS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY, BUT REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER REGARDING
THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS
GENERALLY FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDORS, BUT
MEANINGFUL SHIFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE LOCATIONS OF MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST PART
OF TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER WEAKNESS REMAINS NEARBY. THE HEAVY-RAIN
THREAT WILL INCREASINGLY DEPEND ON MONDAY'S RAINFALL FOOTPRINT AND
THE LOCATION OF ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES. AREAS RECEIVING SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL MONDAY WOULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
TUESDAY, EVEN IF RAINFALL RATES OR OVERALL COVERAGE BEGIN TO
DECREASE. GREATER CLOUD COVER AND MORE FREQUENT CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW RECENT LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
REBUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD BRING LOWER PW REGIME AND A TRANSITION FROM
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED, PRIMARILY
DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY, ALTHOUGH ANY SLOW-MOVING STORM
COULD STILL PRODUCE A LOCALIZED DOWNPOUR.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL OVER THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM THE
GULF ACROSS THE CWA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, FEW (IF ANY) THUNDERSTORMS
AND GREATER INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WITH HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE THAT KEEPS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS GREATER
IN A WARMING TREND THAN IN TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDICES REACHING
ANY SPECIFIC VALUE. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED AND HOW QUICKLY HEAT
STRESS INCREASES. A STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED CLOSER TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WOULD SUPPORT HOTTER CONDITIONS, WHILE A RIDGE
REMAINING FARTHER WEST WOULD PERMIT SOMEWHAT GREATER AFTERNOON
STORM COVERAGE AND LIMIT THE HEAT MORESO. REGARDLESS, MAY BE
LOOKING AT HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST LOCAL URBAN AREAS FRIDAY
THRU WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL GIVE WAY TO BETTER CONVECTION
COVERAGE/CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VIS/CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT WITH ONCE AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS FROM THAT POINT
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE IT STALLS.
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, RESULTING IN
GENERALLY BENIGN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARDS WILL COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS. WATERSPOUTS
WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR DEVELOPING EARLY-
MORNING CONVECTION.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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