611
FXUS64 KLIX 130521
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE AREA.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD
INCREASING HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OR BETTER CHARACTERIZED AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
AS THERE IS NO AIR MASS DIFFERENCES ON EITHER SIDE OF IT AT THE
SFC, IS BETTER NOTICED AT 850MB THIS MORNING STALLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WELL. THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE TROUGH AXIS IS VERY REMINISCENT OF A MARITIME
HIGH WITH MODERATE DIFLUNENCE ALOFT WHICH IS WHAT ONE WOULD LOOK
FOR WHEN CALLING HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES. THERE WILL BE
OUTFLOWS ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY AND MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THOSE AS WELL. THE FIRST SET OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IS OVER OR NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG
A LAND BRZ HANDING ALONG THE COAST. THE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH
SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING. AS HEATING STARTS AND CLOUD COVER
DECAYS, WE SHOULD THEN SEE A XFER INLAND WITH DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS MORNING. TODAY SHOULD GIVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE STORMS AROUND TUE,
BUT SHOULDN'T BE AS WIDESPREAD. WED THROUGH THU SHOULD BE MUCH THE
SAME WITH A BIT LESS COVERAGE BUT STILL SHOULD HAVE STORMS AROUND
BUT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE REASON FOR THIS IS KIND OF
STRANGE IN ONE WAY, AND WE WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN THIS HERE.
AT THE PRESENT TIME THIS MORNING THERE IS AN UPPER LOW WITH A MID
LEVEL AND EVEN A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE. THIS STACKED LOW WILL BEGIN MOVING SW DOWN THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHAIN RANGE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL INTERFACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IF ONE LOOKS AT WINDS ON THE H3 AND H85 LEVELS, IT
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT WHERE THE LOW IS AT EACH OF THESE LEVELS. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE H3 LOW MOVES WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WEST TX
WHILE THE H85 LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
AND STALLS. THIS CAUSES THE VERTICAL ALIGNMENT TO BECOME STRETCHED
AND BREAK EVENTUALLY. THIS THEN CAUSES A MESO-HIGH TO FORM
BETWEEN CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING STARTING LATE TUE BECOMING
STRONGEST WED INTO THU. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS MESO-RIDGE WILL
BE FOUND FROM AMARILLO TO DALLAS TO NEW ORLEANS STARTING LATE TUE
THROUGH THU. THE STRANGE THING TO WATCH IS A BAROCLINIC SFC LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY OPEN OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, DEEPEN AND
MOVE SW THEN WEST OUTSIDE ANY EASTERLY ENVIRONMENT. THIS CAN
EASILY BE SEEN ON ANY MODEL SHOWING SFC PRESSURE. THIS SCENARIO
WILL CAUSE MOST STORM ACTIVITY TO BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THESE
TWO LOWS. ONE IN AND AROUND THE ARKLAMISS AREA TUE THROUGH THU AND
ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN TX. WE KIND OF GET STUCK BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WHICH HELPS BRING LESS STORMS AFTER TODAY. BUT
WE STILL WON'T BE SHUTTING OFF THE WATER WORKS COMPLETELY FOR A
WHILE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE THINGS INITIALLY START OFF DRIER AND HOT. THE
WEAKNESS/TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE SLIDING WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY TUE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS BY THU. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
ATLANTIC AND OFF THE GA/FL COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH
THAT WE NEVER QUITE MOVE DIRECTLY UNDER IT AND THUS NEVER QUITE
COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THURSDAY IS LIKELY
THE BEST DAY WHERE WE COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY AS HGHTS WILL
LIKELY BE AT THEIR HIGHEST AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET SOME DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION. BUT EVEN THEN WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE A TUTT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND THUS ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY
GIVEN FAR FEW STORMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS. AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP BACK UP AS WELL WE MAY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND BUT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MUCH OF THE
AREA COULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ESPECIALLY ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
CIGS WILL HELP LOWER THRESHOLDS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. IFR MAY BE FOUND THROUGH MID MORNING AT MCB AND MVFR CIGS
AT BTR. CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR OUTSIDE ANY STORM ACTIVITY AFTER MID
MORNING. CIGS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN TO THESE LEVELS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. SHRA AND TSRA TODAY WILL BE TIMED IN PROB30 GROUPS AS
COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT CONSTANT AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL.
TERMINALS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY TSRA WILL HAVE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
TEMPORARILY. OUTSIDE TSRA, VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
OUTSIDE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS, A PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NW THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
AND 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE PROTECTED WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY SHORT-DURATION HAZARD. STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS AND STRONG GUSTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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