836
FXUS64 KLIX 131807
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
107 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
THE AREA.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD
INCREASING HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A STRONG (599 DM) UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO NORTH TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT WAS TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. A
NEARLY SOLID AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST, BUT WE ARE SEEING ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THERE WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THINNER.
THE 12Z LIX UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS EXTREMELY MOIST, WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT 2.35 INCHES. THAT'S PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
DAILY MAX. MOISTURE LEVELS STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE
INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE SOME DRYING TAKES PLACE. BY THURSDAY,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS
ACTUALLY CLOSE TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE AT THAT POINT.
MOST OF THE MAJOR METRO AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION, BUT THE REDEVELOPING AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAINFALL
RATES, THEY ARE MOVING, SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT ANY FLOOD THREAT
SOMEWHAT. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. OVERALL,
RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WILL BE
COMMON, BUT ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH EACH
DAY, WITH THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRY ON THURSDAY.
AS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES, THE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE. WE WON'T GET OUT OF THE 80S TODAY, AND
PROBABLY NOT TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH IT'LL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
WEDNESDAY WILL GET TO AROUND 90 AND THURSDAY MORE LIKE 90 TO 95.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
BY FRIDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE A TUTT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND THUS ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW FAR WEST THAT SYSTEM GETS
BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED AND PULLED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS FOR TEMPS WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY
GIVEN FAR FEW STORMS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPS. LITTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ONLY FACTOR
MAKING A DIFFERENCE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP BACK UP AS WELL WE MAY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY, AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MOST TERMINALS AT VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA BRIEFLY, BUT SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA NEAR NORTHERN TERMINALS. WILL CARRY TEMPO OR
PROB30 AS APPROPRIATE. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
MARINE CONVECTION COULD IMPACT KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON TUESDAY,
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE BY MID-MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
WITH ONLY VERY LOCALIZED IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
OUTSIDE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS, A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY
WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NW THURSDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE PROTECTED WATERS.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT-DURATION HAZARD. STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WATERSPOUTS, AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS
AND STRONG GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GREATEST THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE DECREASING LATER IN
THE WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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