919
FXUS64 KLIX 141717
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA.
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL SHIFT
TOWARD INCREASING HEAT, WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A STRONG (599 DM) UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ATLANTA TO DALLAS. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
BIRMINGHAM TO VICKSBURG TO SAN ANTONIO. PRECIPITATION WAS SINKING TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS MORNING, AND WAS MAINLY OFF THE
LOUISIANA COAST AT NOON. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO NEAR EL PASO BY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS ISN'T
QUITE AS FAR WESTWARD WITH THESE FEATURES AS THE ECMWF, BUT THEY ARE
FAIRLY CLOSE. A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTICEABLY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD, AND THE QUESTION AT THIS
POINT IS WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET IN ANY CASE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTICEABLY DRIER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILE (NEAR 1.6 INCHES). THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WON'T ENTIRELY PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 90 TOMORROW, AND 90 TO 95
THURSDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S. ISOLATED AREAS AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST MAY NEED HEAT
ADVISORIES BY FRIDAY AS INDICES REACH NEAR THE 108 ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT MOISTURE
LEVELS, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, WHICH WILL
BE BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE (AROUND 1.8 INCHES). MOST
PROBABLE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST, AND LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID
90 OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 90S. MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES ON A
FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S, BUT NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD GET STUCK ABOVE 80.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MOST TERMINALS AT VFR AT LATE MORNING, ALTHOUGH A FEW MVFR CEILINGS.
RADAR TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO DRIVE THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST,
BUT BARRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE, MAY NOT INCLUDE TSRA TODAY IN ANY
TERMINALS. AREAL COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST IN ANY OF OUR
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND DIRECTION WILL VARY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BECOMING MORE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL
GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH IS WHY WINDS STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 10
KNOTS AND SEAS/WAVES MOSTLY UNDER A COUPLE FEET.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page