850
FXUS64 KLIX 292316
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
616 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF. HEAT BACKS DOWN SOME ON THURSDAY, BUT
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS WITH
FORECAST MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 108-110 DEGREE RANGE.
- AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STORMS TRAIN. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50MPH THE MAIN RISKS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
STARTING THINGS OFF WITH THIS AFTERNOON LOOKING AT GOES-16 VIS,
REVEALS SOME INTERESTING FEATURES. NAMELY, W TO WNW SFC TO LOW-
LEVEL WINDS PROVIDING A FEW SUBTLE CONFLUENCE BANDS, ONE OVER THE
SOUTHSHORE, FEW ACROSS COASTAL SE LA AND ANOTHER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NE DRIFTING SEABREEZE OVER THE NORTHSHORE. NOW, NEARBY
RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS AIDED IN SUPPRESSION THE PAST
FEW DAYS, BUT WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME RESPONSE IN THE RIDGE
PULLING WEST, REVEALING A MORE MOIST THERMAL PROFILE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH JUST SUBTLE ENOUGH FOCUSED CONFLUENCE IN THESE WNW
BOUNDARIES COULD SQUEEZE OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY. GREATER CONFIDENCE WILL COME ACROSS COASTAL MS WHERE THERE
IS DEEPER MOISTURE/LESS INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THE SEABREEZE
DRIFTING NORTH COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS FROM HANCOCK TO
THE EAST. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR IMPACTS, BUT SOMETHING TO
MONITOR.
OTHERWISE, THE HEAT IS ON. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED FOR CURRENT
HAZARDS IN EFFECT. COULD DISTINCTLY SEE SOME 113-115'S AROUND THE
TIDAL LAKES SO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF OUTDOORS
FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
CLEAR CALM TONIGHT, BUT WE START TO SEE A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE
TOMORROW AS A SUBTLE/WEAK FRONT DRIFTS IN FROM THE NORTH TO AROUND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AND AL. THIS, ALONG WITH BUILDING WEAKNESS ALOFT
AND AN INCREASE IN TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE/DIURNAL SUPPORT WILL BE
PLENTY TO AID IN AN ENHANCEMENT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION, WITH BEST CHANCES/COVERAGE EAST OF I-55. DID INTRODUCE
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS AGAIN TOMORROW FROM 11AM-7PM.
DID NOTE THAT SOME ISOLATED AREAS AROUND THE TIDAL LAKES TAPS
113, BUT NWS HEAT RISK DOES DROP OFF SOME AND WITH GREATER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON/RESIDUAL ANVIL CANOPY
SPREADING SW COULD INHIBIT ANY NOTABLE WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
EXTREME HEAT. HOWEVER, SHOULD THAT CHANGE, WILL UPDATE. KLG
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ENHANCED TO CONTINUE TO
HELP SUPPRESS HEAT CONCERNS, BUT COULD INTRODUCE NOW RISKS FOR
RAINING STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, AND, A FEW
STRONG STORMS GIVEN DOWNWARD TRANSPORT POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT FOCUS BECOMES A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDING SE ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEST-COAST RIDGE INTO THE SE US, HELPING
TO UPTICK RAIN CHANCES YET AGAIN, ALONG WITH A FEW STRONG,
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. KLG
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SUNDAY, STILL SEEING INDICATIONS OF THE APEX/END OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF WITHIN A BUILDING EAST US BLOCKING PATTERN.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND CAN THROW SOME CURVEBALLS,
BECAUSE ANY MEANDERING UPPER-LOW CAN EITHER 1) ENHANCE (GREATER)
COVERAGE OR 2) DRIFTS SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AREA HELPING TO DRAG
DRIER AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN US. FOR NOW, IT'S TRENDING A TAD
DRIER BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. ADVERTISING LOW CONFIDENCE FOR NOW,
JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR. KLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION THAT WAS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HAS DISSIPATED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE SMALL SHRA THAT IS NW OF
KMCB. ONCE THE SUN ANGLE GETS A LITTLE LOWER, EXPECT THAT ONE TO
DISSIPATE, TOO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE THE TERMINALS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA
MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH FOR EVEN A PROB30 IN THE TAFS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE AT KBTR, KMCB, KHDC, KASD AND KGPT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
NEARBY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS TODAY, HOWEVER AN INLAND FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
CHANCES, INTRODUCING SOME RISKS FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS AT TIMES, PRIMARILY FOR WIND GUSTS >34KTS, WATERSPOUTS AND
LOCALLY ENHANCED WAVES/SEAS. OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL
PREVAIL GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST, LIGHT IN PROTECTED WATERS TO
BREEZY AT 8-12KTS FOR OUTER GULF WATERS. WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN
MAINLY CALM THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT COULD UPTICK INTO THE 3-5FT RANGE
PROVIDED PERSISTENT WESTERLY FETCH FOR GULF ZONES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KLG
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056-071-090>097.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ057-058-
064-070-076>087-089-098>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>085.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...KLG
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