755
FXUS64 KLIX 300516
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1216 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH LIMITED
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. HEAT CONTINUES TO BACK DOWN FRIDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX NUMBERS LOWER THAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50MPH THE MAIN RISK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
NOT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA MOVING SLOWLY SW THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
STALL TODAY OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A CORRIDOR
FOR SH/TS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY, SO WE SHOULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
JUST AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD BE A RINSE AND REPEAT
FOR FRI AS WELL. BUT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING SE
AT AT A GOOD PACE BY LATE FRI REACHING OUR AREA BY LATE SAT BEFORE
STALLING ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND FRONT WILL HELP DEVELOP A GOOD BIT OF SH/TS
THROUGH THE DAY AS WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WHICH WILL BE A BIT
LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND. NOT EVERYONE WILL GET STORMS EACH DAY BUT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET SOME RAINFALL AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE GLOBALS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECM
AND GFS INDICATING AN ULL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO START
THE LONG TERM. EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SOMEWHAT OFF WITH THE LATEST
GFS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE ECM OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE WITH THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF
COAST. IN THIS PATTERN/SOLUTION, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RESIDE INTO
THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO BEING CORRECT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY STRONGER CELLS WITH SMALL HAIL DURING
PEAK HEATING WHEN INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECM ARE ROUGHLY THE SAME
ALTHOUGH TEMPORALLY THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES. AN H5 KICKER FROM
THE NORTH WILL DIG JUST ENOUGH TO GRAB THE LOW IN BOTH MODELS, BUT
THIS OCCURS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE GFS. SO THE COLD CORE LOW WILL
NOT HANG AROUND VERY LONG BEFORE IT OPENS UP AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM BY
MID WEEK AND WITH ECM ONLY SHOWING THE LOW A BIT FURTHER AWAY, ANY
TIME ISSUES WOULD BE SOMEWHAT IRRELEVANT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THERE REMAINS NONZERO DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CHANCES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL WITHIN THE GLOBALS IS
A BIT WEAKER AS IT APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DECAY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUED RAIN/CLOUDINESS DURING
PEAK HEATING. BUT, IF THE GLOBALS ARE CORRECT, INVERSELY, AS THE
POPS DECREASE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE HEIGHTS STARTING TO RISE. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT ALL SITES. THERE WILL BE
BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA TODAY TO SHOW IN THIS TAF SET WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WHILE THE STRONGEST MOVE
THROUGH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY TO SW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE THE USUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS
WHERE WINDS APPROACH AND SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS DURING
THE EVENING AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AND REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO
4 FEET OFFSHORE, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS, WAVES, LIGHTNING,
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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