514
FXUS64 KLIX 310521
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
110 DEGREES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
- NUMBERS OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS COULD
CAUSE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES.
- STORM NUMBERS WILL FALL NEXT WEEK BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EACH DAY AS A MORE NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
IT WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY BUT THERE IS A FRONT IN THE VICINITY
BRINGING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER DEW PTS. THESE DEW PTS ARE NOT GOING
TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO MAKE IT FEEL COMFORTABLE AS THE DROP WILL BE
BASICALLY FROM 78F TO ~75F. BUT THE FRONT WILL KEEP MORE OF THE
AREA IN CLOUD COVER ONCE STORMS ERRUPT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OUT OF A HEAT ADVISORY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF WILL NEED AN ADVISORY SINCE THERE WILL BE NO REAL
RELIEF OUTSIDE ANY STORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS
DEVELOPING TODAY IS OVER COASTAL MISS AND THIS SHOULD BE AFTER THE
HOTTEST TEMPS ARE ACKNOWLEDGED. MOST AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
PEARL RIVER WILL STILL HAVE CHANCES BUT VERY ISOLATED. THE REAL WX
MAKER IS NOW MOVING SE OUT OF IOWA, NEBRASKA AND COLORADO. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE FOUND CUTTING THROUGH NORTHERN LA AND CENTRAL
MISS BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A LINE OF STORMS TO THE AREA AND
SOME ACTUAL DRY AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THATS
NOT HUGE AMOUNTS OF DRYING BUT IT WILL BE FELT IN COMPARISON TO
THE AIR THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST INTO THE TN
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING ELEVATED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY,
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION WHICH ALSO HELPS KEEP
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND. SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A LOT
MORE OF THE RAIN CHANCES COMPARED THE NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE THIS
FRONT WON'T BRING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BRIEFLY
BRING DOWN THE DEWPOINTS MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL
OUTSIDE. THE ORIGINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE NE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT A LONGER WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, CATCHING US IN MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE DAYS. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AROUND
THROUGH A MID WEEK. CONVECTION NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON
LAKE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR BETWEEN SCATTERED STORMS. TSRA WILL CAUSE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WHILE THEY MOVE OVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY TO SW FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE
USUAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS
APPROACH AND SOMETIMES SLIGHTLY EXCEED 15 KNOTS DURING THE EVENING
AND PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL SETTLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE,
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS, WAVES, LIGHTNING, AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR NEAR STRONGER STORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ056>058-064-070-076>087-090>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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