557
FXUS64 KLIX 312328
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN FOR
WHERE TO TAKE SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THEIR LOCATION.
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR WHERE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 110
DEGREES AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR, THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER, CAUSING THE PEAK
VALUES TO COME IN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GIVEN THE
BORDERLINE NATURE OF TOMORROW'S HEAT INDEX FORECAST, WILL HOLD OFF
ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING TO SEE HOW THIS AFTERNOON'S
HEAT INDEX FORECAST PLAYS OUT AND WHETHER ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
TOMORROW'S FORECAST ARE NECESSARY. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A
HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK "COLD" FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, THE FRONT ITSELF IS NOT
LIKELY TO MOVE ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OR RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE. RATHER, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL EITHER NEAR THE COAST OR OVER THE LOCAL AREA,
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEREVER IT STALLS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY (MAINLY IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE),
OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW, WITH MOST PLACES
LIKELY TO SEE LESS THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S "COLD" FRONT, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE IN THE
"UNCOMFORTABLE" 100-105 DEGREE RANGE RATHER THAN THE "HAZARDOUS TO
YOUR HEALTH IF PRECAUTIONS AREN'T TAKEN" RANGE. THE DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR
A COUPLE DAYS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MOVING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BREAKDOWN AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE LOCAL AREA SITUATED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE, ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE AGAIN, POTENTIALLY REACHING HAZARDOUS
LEVELS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
(30-40%) IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM KJAN TO KMOB, AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE KGPT TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CIRRUS
BLOWOFF FROM THE CONVECTION IS BEING BLOWN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN TERMINALS, BUT THOSE CEILINGS ARE WELL ABOVE FL100.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT ACROSS LOCAL TERMINALS. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY, COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE, NOT SURE THERE IS
GOING TO BE MUCH WESTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, UNTIL A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER IOWA DROPS
INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST KGPT
(PROB30), ALTHOUGH KMCB AND KASD AREN'T TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE THREAT
SOMEWHAT, POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS KMSY, BUT THREAT ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THERE AT THIS POINT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL KEEP WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A SHORT PERIOD SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND WASHES OUT. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES LOCATED MORE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BUILD
2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN THE 1 TO 3 FEET RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ056>058-064-070-
076>087-090>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DM
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