975
FXUS64 KLIX 011746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN COASTAL AREAS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY MORNING, PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANYONE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE AND
HAVE A PLAN FOR WHERE TO TAKE SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
THEIR LOCATION.
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT TO START THE
WEEK. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS
LEVELS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WEAK "COLD" FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING
TOMORROW. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA, IT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NOW LOOKS
TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH DEEPER GULF MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
AND RESULT IN GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE WITH POPS IN THE 50-70% RANGE. TIMING-WISE, THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDDAY.
THE SETUP DOESN'T LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER -
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
LOCATED OVER THE GULF BY THE TIME WE REACH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SPEAKING OF RAINFALL, OVERALL TOTALS EVEN NEAR THE COAST WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH, AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR, TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. THE BOTTOM LINE: DESPITE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, THIS FRONT
WILL NOT PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA.
AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, RAIN CHANCES EVEN IN
COASTAL AREAS WILL DROP OFF AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE WORK
WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. NBM APPEARS TO BE A
BIT OVERDONE WITH DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE MIDWEEK
TIMEFRAME GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE THROUGH AT AT LEAST WED, SO BARRING
ANY CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP FORECAST MIDWEEK ARE LIKELY WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS THESE
TIME FRAMES MOVE INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED ALONG SEA/LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF. CURRENTLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH WITH THIS MOISTURE, INDICATING PW VALUES ON FRIDAY OF
AROUND 2.25 INCHES, WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. OBVIOUSLY THAT'S QUITE THE RAMP UP COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY WHEN PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ALSO
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH INDICATES NEAR
NORMAL PW VALUES BY FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID, WHILE IT'S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION, THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION DOES APPEAR
OVERDONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES PERSISTING EVEN INTO
FRIDAY.
ASSUMING REALITY IS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF "NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE," WOULD EXPECT TO SEE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IF THE WETTER SOLUTION PANS OUT, THEN
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS BEFORE CALMING A BIT AROUND SUNSET.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS
WHERE PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN HEAVIER STORMS.
FARTHER NORTHWEST, LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO REACH THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN,
MAUREPAS, AND SALVADOR AND CATAOUATCHE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY
SUNDAY AS IT SINKS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WASHES OUT THE WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX AGAIN. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES
LOCATED MORE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL OTHERWISE BE GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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