103
FXUS64 KLIX 021038 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
538 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN COASTAL AREAS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TO START NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT TO START THE
WEEK. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING HAZARDOUS
LEVELS AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT HERE WE HAVE SEEN A FEW VERY SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOP NORTH OF I10 AND WEST OF I55. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL
INDICATING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. IN TERMS OF CONSISTENCY, CAMS HAVE REALLY BEEN
FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE I10 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING. AS QUICKLY AS CAMS DEVELOP THIS
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, IT MOVES IT SOUTHWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND NOON LEADING TO LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING AND BEST QPF
SIGNAL.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN HOT WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SUGGESTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LAND/SEA
INTERACTION. HOWEVER, "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL. STILL
UNCOMFORTABLE, BUT NOT AS DANGEROUS TO BE OUTSIDE AS THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SO NATURALLY NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE DRY AIR STICKS AROUND INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING WITH A LATE (EARLY?) SEASON ULL AND EAST COAST TROUGH
SITTING OVER THE EASTERN US. GIVEN THE LOCATION WE ARE FAR ENOUGH
THAT THE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL NOT HELP LIMIT DAYTIME HEAT AS WELL AS
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE ULL ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORMS WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZES.
THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ON AVERAGE ARE NOT ZERO, BUT VERY CLOSE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS THAT GET A SHOWER WILL LIKELY BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND
LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY INTACT WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, THE TROUGH
BROADENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH AND BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING BROAD NORTHERN-
STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LITTLE
FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WEDNESDAY
CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE UNDERWAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS
BACK ONSHORE, BUT THE COLUMN MAY REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL AND AND
INHIBITED TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD BE TIED PRIMARILY TO THE SEA BREEZE OR LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. POPS AROUND 10 TO 30
PERCENT APPEAR REASONABLE, WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
POTENTIALLY REMAINING DRY.
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED. FORECAST PW INCREASES FROM 1.5" RANGE TO NEAR 2".
HOWEVER, STILL DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A WELL-DEFINED
SYNOPTIC TRIGGER. INITIATION SHOULD THEREFORE REMAINS HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT GREATER SCATTERED
COVERAGE SATURDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
WEAK FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING, PULSE-
TYPE STORMS RATHER THAN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
HAZARDS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 90S. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THE 108 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THAT LEVEL BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. (ME)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP AND GROW SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BY 02/12Z TERMINALS
NORTH OF I-12 SUCH AS HDC AND MCB HAVE BEEN CLEARED OF
CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE WILL CLEAR ADDITIONAL
TERMINALS SUCH AS ASD, GPT, AND EVENTUALLY NEW AND MSY. HUM MAY
HANG ONTO CONVECTION A BIT LONGER TODAY, BUT LOOK TO BE CLEARED
AROUND NOON OR SO. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION, BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD WIN OUT
THROUGH THE CYCLE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BEGIN SUBSIDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY REACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH
OUT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER AND WINDS TRANSITION
TO A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY SETTLE INTO THE 1 TO 3
FOOT RANGE AS WIND SPEEDS IN THE PERIOD DON'T APPEAR TO BE
APPRECIABLY STRONG. DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED BY THE DRIER AIRMASS, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. (ME)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ532-
534>536-541-543-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ551-553-
554-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ534>536-541-543-557.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ553-554-
570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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