491
FXUS64 KLIX 030511 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AND A GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AS EXPECTED THE "COLD" FRONT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREE GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 11AM. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE GULF AS THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OR DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, WITH DRY AIR
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST RAIN
CHANCES LOW. WILL MOSTLY CARRY SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST TUES/WED
WHERE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE MORE OF A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD
HELP KEEP AFTERNOON MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THOUGH A FEW PLACES COULD PEAK NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 105
DEGREES EACH DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS AND THE LOCAL AREA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND
GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MOISTURE INCREASES, DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PEAK
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE
103-106 RANGE EACH DAY. WARMER THAN NORMAL AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
STILL SOME MINOR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF TO AFFECT THE AREA SOME TIME DURING THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY WITH
HE PREVIOUSLY BULLISH OPERATIONAL GFS NOW KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE OFFSHORE. IT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN, INDICATING NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE AREA
INSTEAD OF SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE AS WELL AS A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING
MUCH MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME VARIATION BETWEEN
WEST-NORTHWEST AN WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT, PLACING THE LOCAL WATERS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND RESULTING IN MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 1 TO 2 FOOT
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DM
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