142
FXUS64 KLIX 030647
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
147 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE HEAT
AND A GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR FAIRLY "SOUPY" IF YOU WILL. NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR,
HOWEVER, HUMIDITY VALUES ARE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE. EVENTUALLY
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM CLEARING MOST OF THE REGION AND
ALLOWING THE MORE COMFORTABLE DRY AIR TO FILTER FURTHER SOUTH. AT
THE SURFACE, NORTHERLY WINDS/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE, BUT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR HOTTER TEMPS. SINCE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE LOWER, NO NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 105F DURING
PEAK HEATING. TAKING A LOOK AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, THERE
REMAINS A ULL OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THERE REGION. AGAIN, DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION, THE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH TEMPERATURE
RELIEF, BUT AGAIN AT LEAST RH VALUES ARE REASONABLE.
AS FOR RAINFALL, OVERALL CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT PRETTY CLOSE.
IF THERE IS AN EXCEPTION IT WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE DIURNAL
CYCLE OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND RIGHT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACK THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY THURSDAY, CROSSING THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA WITHIN A
REGION OF MINIMAL SUBSIDENCE WITH NO RIDGING ALOFT. AT THE SAME
TIME, MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE UNDERWAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INLAND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST PW
INCREASES FROM 1.5" RANGE TO OVER 2". DESPITE NOT HAVING A WELL-
DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGER, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH DRIVING TEMPS
INTO THE MID 90S WILL EASILY INITIATE CONVECTION ON THE INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WEAK FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR SLOW-
MOVING, PULSE-TYPE STORMS RATHER THAN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
USUAL SUMMERTIME HAZARDS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES UPWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THE 108 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH THAT LEVEL BEFORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS, PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND. (ME)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE AS WELL AS A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED RIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
HOUSTON TO DAUPHIN ISLAND. WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAVE
DIMINISHED BUT SOUTH OF THERE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS ARE STILL WEST
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY LOSES DEFINITION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND WITH THE DAILY COASTAL
CIRCULATIONS.
THE SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
ALTER FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AS THE EASTERLY FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED LATE
IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE
SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS. DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND TO FAVOR
THE OPEN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUNDS, TIDAL LAKES, AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS
LATER IN THE DAY. (ME)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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