465
FXUS64 KLIX 040519 AAB
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND A GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
DRIER AIR BEHIND YESTERDAY'S "COLD" FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY
QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY POP UP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON, BUT FOR
MOST PLACES, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE, AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AROUND OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY IN MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THESE WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF BACK INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD START TO
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION BY
THURSDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES, THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS AS THE AFTERNOONS PROGRESS. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE INCREASES, THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUES TO BE UNCLEAR. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS BACK TO BRINGING A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2"
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTHWARD
OVER THE GULF. WILL MENTION THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOW ALSO
REFLECTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH POSITIVE PW ANOMALIES WHEREAS
PREVIOUS RUNS WERE LESS BULLISH. MEANWHILE, THE EURO ENSEMBLE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE PW ANOMALIES.
THAT BEING SAID, CAN MAKE NO SUBSTANTIAL ARGUMENTS FOR WHY ONE
SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAN THE OTHER AND SEE NO REASON TO
ARGUE AGAINST A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS THE SITUATION BECOMES
CLEARER REGARDING HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM TODAY, BUT CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDWEEK. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...DM
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