285
FXUS64 KLIX 041712
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1212 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK, RESULTING IN RELIEF FROM LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND A GENERAL LACK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
AS WE TRANSITION UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE
WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WHERE THEY OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. MSW
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. PWS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST THIS WEEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAILY
AFTERNOON POPUP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS
(40-50MPH), BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 103-108 DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. LOCAL
LANDBREEZE SETUP MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.
THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN MODESTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
CONSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WHICH WILL SUPPORT 2-3 FT SEAS. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST COMMON, IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION,
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN
ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND WITH THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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