780
FXUS64 KLIX 050617
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
117 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IS UPON US GOING INTO MIDWEEK. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS AN
H5 SHORTWAVE KICKER SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW
HEIGHTS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE, MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
TROPICS. WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, POPS
WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT APPEARS FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS, BUT EACH AFTERNOON FALL A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT SO NOT
EXPECTING HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW. FURTHER, WITH POPS INCREASING
THERE WILL BE SOME RELIEF DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND WHEN A RICH PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DISPLACED WEST
OF THE REGION, WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE
MAINTAINS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING EXPECTED, CONVECTION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
GENERALLY FAVORING SOUTHERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY
BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INLAND DURING PEAK HEATING. WEAK STEERING
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL FAVOR SLOW-MOVING, PULSE-TYPE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT WILL
LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER EACH DAY.
LITTLE MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CURRENTLY
APPARENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND ONLY SUBTLE FORCING, ALLOWING THE
DAILY MARINE AND SEA-BREEZE CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO CONTINUE. ANY WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE
COVERAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THEIR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AT THIS RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-AUGUST NORMALS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD SOME LOCATIONS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL
PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 100 TO 107
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS, BUT WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS HEAT
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. (ME)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. RAIN/CONVECTION COVERAGE
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS. USED PROBS FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF I10. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THIS WILL
ALTER FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS AS THE EASTERLY FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED LATE
IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 1 TO 2 FEET THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHILE LOWER PRESSURES PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
CONSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WHICH WILL SUPPORT 2-3 FT SEAS. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST COMMON, IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FASHION,
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THEN
ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND WITH THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. (ME)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...ME
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