611
FXUS64 KLIX 171054
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
554 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 110S. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY. BEYOND TODAY, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE IMPACT OF THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
EACH DAY SHOULD SHOW ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS THAN THE DAY BEFORE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHOW UP WITH THE HELP FROM SOME TYPE
OF BOUNDARY INTERACTION. ONCE ONE OR TWO GET STARTED, IT WILL GO
QUICKLY AS NEW OUTFLOWS ARE DEVELOPED. THE BIG PICTURE STILL SHOWS
THE UPPER/MID LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHA AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE SW CONUS BUCKLING THE POLAR JET CAUSING TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGHING IS WHAT HELPS GET MORE
STORMS GOING OVER THE SE CONUS BY LATE TUE INTO WED. SOME OF THESE
STORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF IN WHICH THEY WILL GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE EASTERLIES, BRINGING SOME OF THESE STORM PULSES
BACK TO THE WEST. WE COULD SEE A FEW OF THESE IN SEPERATE
INTERVALS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THU. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS ARE MORE
RELIABLE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION OF ANY FCAST AS MESOSCALE
FEATURES ARE HANDLED POORLY AT TIMES THAT FAR OUT. BUT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS BELIEVABLE AS THE TROUGHING WOULD CAUSE AN
UNSETTLED REGION OF STORM ACTIVITY WHERE THE BASE AND LEADING EDGE
OF IT SETTLES IN, WHICH IN THIS CASE, IS OVER THE SE CONUS INTO
THE NE GULF.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, AND TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAT MAY
END UP MAKING A BIT OF A DIFFERENCE IN OUR FORECAST.
A WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS GETS HANDLED
DIFFERENTLY BY THE TWO GLOBAL MODEL FAMILIES. THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ALLOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PICK UP THE IMPULSE AND TAKE IT
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR US.
HOWEVER, SOME (INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL 18Z), BUT NOT ALL, OF THE
GFS MEMBERS SHOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MISSING THE IMPULSE
OVER THE GULF WITH IT SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER (AND
COOLER). AT THIS POINT, THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOLUTIONS THAT
DON'T PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN. UNTIL WE GET INTO A WETTER PATTERN,
WE'LL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF
THERE'S ONE DAY THAT FAVORS BEING "SLIGHTLY" WETTER AND LESS HOT, IT
WOULD BE SATURDAY, AND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THAT DAY COMPARED TO
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE MINOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
OUTSIDE TSRA TIMES, VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. THOSE SITES WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF GETTING SH/TS WILL BE SHOWN WITH TIMING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY BEING IN CONTROL. ISOLATED NIGHTLY STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE. FOR THE WINDS, EXPECT
VARIABLE DIRECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK LOCKING IN TO EASTERLY FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AT OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OUTSIDE ANY STORMS. WAVEHEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-
076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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