510
FXUS64 KLIX 210502
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-113 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL OFFER LIMITED TO NO RELIEF.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE ORIENTATION OF STORMS WAS A BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS
EXPECTED, BUT THE MAJORITY OF IT WAS SPOT ON. THE NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENT WAS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE UNTIL LOOKED AT FROM A BROADER
VIEW. IT WAS WHERE TWO TROUGHS CAME TOGETHER. THE TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE SE CONUS FOR A WHILE NOW INTERSECTED THE NEW TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING SOUTH CAUSING THE STORMS TO ERRUPT IN A NORTH SOUTH
FASHION WHILE THE REST DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW BOUNDARY. THIS
WON'T BE MUCH DIFFERENT TODAY OTHER THAN PLACEMENT. THE WHOLE MESS
WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH, BASICALLY OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL STILL SEE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 96F, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY GIVE US A FEW
STORMS EACH DAY, BUT WE WILL NOW INTRUDUCE A WEAKNESS AND SOME
OUTFLOWS ONCE ACTIVITY GETS STARTED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME QUITE VOLATILE AND THE INTENSE HEATING AND 850MB TROUGHING
WILL DEFINITELY GIVE US MORE COVERAGE THAN THERE HAS BEEN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS BEING SO HIGH, STORMS SHOULD
RAPIDLY FIRE ONCE THOSE TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED ALMOST ALL AT ONCE.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE THAN ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. A
GENERAL NORTHERLY STORM FLOW DOES NOT NORMALLY BRING TORNADOES
WITH IT, BUT ONE CAN NEVER RULE THOSE THINGS OUT DOWN HERE. THE
MAIN ATTRIBUTES THESE STORMS WILL CARRY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,
INTENSE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL
HAIL. AFTER TODAY, THE NORMAL DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL TAKE OVER. NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING
BEFORE BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS DOTTING THE MAP EACH
DAY AND THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OUR REGION REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HEAT BUBBLE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.
DESPITE THE RIDGE STILL HANGING ON TOUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AT LEAST ISOLATED IN COVERAGE WITH THE
BEST POPS BEING AS FAR FROM THE HEAT DOME AS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONTINUED RIDGING WITH HIGH
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
GOING INTO LATE AUGUST. AGAIN SOME CONVECTION WILL HELP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WEST OF THE
I59 CORRIDOR.
GLOBALS THEN BRING ON A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BY THURSDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECM HAVE AN H5 SHORT WAVE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE DIG INTO OUR REGION INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY. THIS OF
COURSE LOOKS TO HELP BRING DAILY TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH AN
INCREASE IN POPS AND CLOUDINESS. KEPT POPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE, BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON
THIS SOLUTION, TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT AND INVERSELY
POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. OTHERWISE, UNTIL THEN, HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED EACH DAY EXCEPT MAYBE NEXT THURSDAY.
(FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. TSRA
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF EACH SITE GETTING IMPACTS FROM STORMS THAN
THERE HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALL SH/TS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET BRINGING ALL TERMINALS BACK TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHER WINDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN
AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
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