991
FXUS64 KLIX 222323
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-113 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL OFFER LIMITED RELIEF. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. STAY
HYDRATED, WEAR LIGHT-WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHES, AND TAKE
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHEN
THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA, AND WE WILL ENTER THE "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ADVECT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, INCREASING THE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION.
DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS (40- 50MPH). THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BASED ON RECENT MODEL
TRENDS.
THE HEAT CONTINUES AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S COMBINED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-112 DEGREES RANGE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND UNCOMFORTABLE. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
MONDAY AND BEYOND. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF YOU WILL BE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. MSW
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, INCREASING HUMIDITIES FOR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DRY OVERALL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH POPS AROUND 10-20% FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WHERE THEY OCCUR
WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH). THE HEAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 DEGREE RANGE, IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. SO,
BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS. MSW
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, INCREASING HUMIDITIES FOR THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE DRY OVERALL THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH POPS AROUND 10-20% FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WHERE THEY OCCUR
WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH). THE HEAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110 DEGREE RANGE, IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. SO,
BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY
AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
ANY RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT ANY OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W THEN SW TO START
THE WEEK. A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY MID
WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN
AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...MSW
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