986
FXUS64 KLIX 230502
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-113 WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
OFFER LIMITED RELIEF. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. STAY HYDRATED, WEAR
LIGHT-WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHES, AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHEN THUNDER ROARS,
GO INDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL DEPEND ON SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PLAYERS ON THE NAC(NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENTAL)
STAGE. THESE ARE VERY SIMPLISTIC AND ARE MADE UP OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL STACKED HIGH OVER THE WEST AND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EAST. ANY FLEXING OF ONE OR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL HAVE IMPACTS HERE SINCE WE ARE SO CLOSE TO WHERE THESE TWO
SYSTEMS INTERFACE. LOOKING AT THE H3 LEVEL, ONE CAN SEE A SADDLE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS BEING CAUSED BY THE
HIGH TO THE WEST SPLITTING AIR AWAY FROM THE LOW(TROUGH) TO THE
EAST. THE SADDLE IS NOT WHAT GIVES US ANY REAL ISSUES, INSTEAD IT
MORE OR LESS STAGNATES THINGS WHICH IS THE REASON WE WENT TO MUCH
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES WITHIN A DAY. BUT THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THIS SADDLE IS STRONGLY DIVERGENT AND IS THE AREA THAT MOVES OVER
US LATER TODAY AND REMAINS MONDAY. THIS DIVERGENT FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE EAST BY TUE AND WED. ONE WOULD THINK THAT 25-30KT WINDS AT H3
IS NOT VERY STRONG, BUT ON THE CONTRARY, THESE SPEEDS ARE ACTUALLY
MODERATE TO STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT THIS LATITUDE. THE
SPLIT(DIVERGENT) FLOW ALOFT IS A MAJOR KEY TO THE ADDED WEAKNESS
OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WHEN SPLIT FLOWS OCCUR AT
THE SFC, IT CAUSES STABILITY AS AIR SINKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND IN
DOING SO WARMS AND BECOMES MORE STABLE. IT IS EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE
WHEN IT OCCURS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WHEN THIS OCCURS, THE SPLIT
FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LAYER LIFTING BELOW AND DESTABILIZATION.
EVENTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR, THAT IS ALL THAT IS NEEDED
TO HELP CONVECTIVE CURRENTS BREAK THROUGH INVERSIONS VIA BUOYANT
FORCING ONCE THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE DAY ARE ACHIEVED. AS THIS
AREA SHIFTS EAST TUE AND WED, IT SIMPLY MEANS THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST TAKES MORE CONTROL OF THE AREA CAUSING STRONGER STABILITY,
MAKING IT HARDER TO BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION LEVELS WITH JUST
BUOYANCY FORCING ALONE. THIS MAKES IT EASIER TO SEE HOW SUBTLE THE
FLEXING OF THESE SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE IMPACTS TO THE AREA QUITE A
BIT. SPC HAS SET A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE, AND THESE LEVELS ARE
APPROPRIATE FOR THIS SCENARIO AS WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT WITH A FEW MORE OF THESE TYPE OF STORMS
MON. SINCE THESE SYSTEM SHIFTS ARE SO MINOR AND SUBTLE, IT DOES
NOT TAKE MUCH TO BE OFF ON A FCAST EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SCALE.
EITHER WAY, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AND IT ALMOST SEEMS THAT THE
ONLY THING THAT WILL BREAK IT IS THE FALL SEASON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK, A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER LOW DIVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SHARP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
AND WILL ALSO SHUNT THE STUBBORN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING
OVER TEXAS A BIT FARTHER WEST. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ALOFT
LOCALLY SHOULD MARK A RETURN (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) TO A MORE NORMAL
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
ASSUMING IT HOLDS, THE UPWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
BENEFICIAL IN MULTIPLE WAYS. FIRST, IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HOPEFULLY
IMPROVING THE ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO MODERATE DROUGHT (D1)
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AND SECOND, WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ABOUND FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN FROM THEIR RECENT STAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL DESPITE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MOST OF THIS CYCLE WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT
THERE WILL BE MORE TSRA DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTION
LEVELS FOR THOSE SITES IMPACTED. ALL ACTIVITY WILL DECAY AFTER
SUNSET BRINGING VFR TO ALL SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W THEN SW TO
START THE WEEK. A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MID WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page