636
FXUS64 KLIX 231746
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
105-113 WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
OFFER LIMITED RELIEF. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. STAY HYDRATED, WEAR
LIGHT-WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHES, AND TAKE BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHEN THUNDER ROARS,
GO INDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST, AND WE WILL ENTER THE "RING OF
FIRE" PATTERN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
ADVECT WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, INCREASING THE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION. DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS A LINGERING WEAKNESS INFLUENCES THE AREA. THESE
STORMS WHERE THEY OCCUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY SUBSEVERE WINDS (40- 50MPH). THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, BASED ON RECENT MODEL TRENDS.
THE HEAT CONTINUES AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S COMBINED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-112 DEGREES RANGE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND UNCOMFORTABLE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY, WE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW. IT WILL BE LOOKED AT AGAIN ON THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE HOT AND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU WILL BE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. MSW
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION, INCREASING
HUMIDITIES FOR THE AREA. DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS WE RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS WHERE
THEY OCCUR WOULD BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (30-50MPH).
THE HEAT WILL LINGER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE, IT WILL BE QUITE
UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. SO, BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. MSW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO GROUPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT MOST AREA AIRPORTS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS THAT WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TEMPORARILY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. MSW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WEAK
AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME W THEN SW TO
START THE WEEK. A PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP BY
MID WEEK AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WINDS AND WAVES
HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...MSW
MARINE...MSW
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